Probability and Value

First we calculate what could be termed as the bookmaker's profit indicator. It shows how much the bookmaker receives in stakes whenever he makes a payment of €1. If odds[1] is the (European) odds for a home win, the payout from a €1 bet, then 1/odds[1] is the bookmakers price for a payout of €1 in case of a victory for the home team.The price for paying out €1 irrespective of the outcome of the outcome of the game (where you play all three outcomes) is thus:

Profit indicator = (1/odds[1]) + (1/odds[X]) + (1/odds[2])

Example

If the bookmaker receives the bets in the right proportions, then the payout share (as part of total stakes for that match) for the customers will be

Payout share = 100% x 1 / Profit indicator

From the payout share, you'll have the profit share for the bookmaker as 100% - payout share.

Example (continued)

For the final step, multiply the bookmaker's price for each of the three outcomes by the payoutshare. This removes the part of the price, which is the bookmaker's profit, and leaves only the pure probability element of the price..

The probabilities are thus calculated like this:

Probability[1] = (1/odds[1]) x Payout share
Probability[X] = (1/odds[X]) x Payout share
Probability[2] = (1/odds[2]) x Payout share

Example (continued)

Value is a purely mathematical way of calculating, how good an odds is. You are only using the odds and the probability of the outcome to evaluate the odds. Factors like league position, form, and injuries are not taken into consideration, it is all about the odds and the probability.

The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout for each dollar (currency used in this example) staked. The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout. That is how much you get in return for each dollar staked. You can calculate the value by using following formula:

If the value is above 1.00, then the bet is a ValueBet. This means that your average payout per dollar is greater than 1,00. Each time you bet more than a dollar you will get more than a dollar back statistically. In this way, you should win money in the long run. This assumes that you know the true probalility of an outcome, which nobody does when it comes to sport events. When playing the roulette, you know the probability of red as an outcome, 18/37. But when it comes to sport events, like a football match between England and Brazil, you can only guess on the probability. There are too many factors involved to make a precise objection prediction possible.

Example

If you can get odds 5.00 at England to win over Brazil, and England has a 30% chance of winning, the odds will have following value:

Since the value is above 1.00, this is a ValueBet. In other words, statistically you will only win three out of 10 times. But each payout will be five times your stake. This gives a total payout of $15 if the stake is $1 each time. That is an average of 1.5 payout per bet, which is exactly what the value of the bet.

This is how you can use ValueBets

ValueBets is a way to find the very best odds among the enormous amount of odds at the site. It is a method to find the odds, which not only are the the highest for the specific event, but in relative terms, the best of them all.

Notice that ValueBets with the same value, for example 1.05, can have very different probabilities. If you feel like taking a big chance - and maybe go for a big winning - ValueBets with high odds and low probabilities are interesting. Conversely, if you are interested in finding a relatively safe bet, then low odds with high probabilities would be of interest.