Internazionale Milano

vs

AS Roma

Tips, Stats and Odds

The Serie A title race is on a knife edge with Inter leading the way on 71 points from 33 games and Roma in sixth spot on 57 points after the same number of matches. So Saturday’s clash between the Nerazzurri and Giallorossi is a huge one with Inter desperate to hold onto their advantage and Roma looking to close the gap to 14 points. Simone Inzaghi has done a brilliant job since taking over as head coach in June 2021, installing a disciplined 3-5-2 system that is solid at the back, provides width in attack and allows Inter to play their possession game while also being dangerous on the counter. Lautaro Martinez has rediscovered his scoring touch with three goals in his last five games, but Marcus Thuram has been their main goal threat this season with 14 Serie A goals from 31 appearances. Roma have been in good form with three wins and two draws in their last five games, but they have failed to win their last away game at San Siro. Claudio Ranieri has brought a lot of tactical flexibility to the club since taking over in November 2024, but they have essentially played with either a back three or four and have been compact, disciplined and dangerous on the counter when they win the ball back.

Artem Dovbyk has been Roma’s main attacking threat with 11 goals in 29 Serie A appearances this season, but Eldor Shomurodov has chipped in with two goals during their current five-game unbeaten run and looks a good option to score anytime on Saturday. Inter are +262 to win this match, Roma -102 and the draw +287, which makes the Giallorossi the bookies’ favorites to avoid defeat. But we feel Inter are still the team to beat in this game for a number of reasons. They have won their last four games against Roma, have been excellent at home this season and look to have the psychological edge in this clash of styles. Inter’s 3-5-2 system is very structured and they are patient in their build-up play, but when they get the ball forward their wingbacks can fly and they can be explosive on the counter.

Roma are a pragmatic side that can be tough to break down and have scored just 15 times in 16 Serie A away games this season, so we are taking Under 2.5 goals as our main bet here. Inter have been solid at home this season, conceding just 18 goals in 16 Serie A games at San Siro, while Roma have averaged just 0.94 goals per game on the road. Inter have won one and drawn one of their last two home assignments, while Roma have won one and drawn one of their last two away games. Inter have won the last four meetings between the clubs, so we are going with a home win for small stakes in this huge game.