- Mexico have won their last two meetings with Honduras in CONCACAF tournaments.
- Mexico have been excellent at this tournament, defeating Saudi Arabia 2-0 in the quarter-finals.
- Honduras’ run to the last four includes a 2-1 win over the USA in the group stage.
Rivarly renewal
Mexico’s rivalry with Honduras is one of the most heated in CONCACAF, and the form book and the two teams’ contrasting styles suggest Thursday’s semi-final could be a classic matchup. Mexico have had the upper hand in CONCACAF meetings, beating Honduras 4–0 in the 2023 Gold Cup group stage and winning both legs in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, but Los Catrachos upset the favorites in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers when they drew 2-2 at Estadio Azteca and then won the reverse fixture 2-1.
Both teams are at full strength for this match and a Gold Cup final place is the prize on Thursday, so it should be an intense, exciting matchup. However, the Mexico vs Honduras odds clearly favor Mexico, as they are a short -384 to win this one and Honduras are a large +990 underdogs, which suggests the underdog must be looking at the long odds for an upset. For more on what to expect, see our Mexico vs Honduras preview.
Mexico have momentum
Jaime Lozano’s progressive young Mexico team are enjoying this 2025 Gold Cup to date, having gone through the competition without a blemish to their record so far. They dispatched Saudi Arabia in the quarter-finals in a 2-0 victory and have looked clinical in the front third while keeping it tight at the back throughout the tournament.
Santiago Giménez has been Mexico's primary offensive weapon, scoring crucial goals and displaying poise in high-pressure moments, but midfield leader Edson Álvarez anchors Mexico's midfield, providing leadership, defensive cover, and a composed presence for El Tri. In terms of our Mexico vs Honduras prediction, it’s hard to look past Mexico’s current form.
Honduras have comeback flair
Reinaldo Rueda is no stranger to playing this role and brings a mix of savvy and pragmatism to this Honduras team. They are a compact, disciplined unit that are tough to break down and can make the most of the chances they create on counterattacks.
Alberth Elis is their driving force in the offensive third, where he can beat players for pace and is the key for Honduras’ counterattacking style against teams that dominate possession. Veteran frontman Anthony Lozano offers experience and a knack for the big moment against the best teams in the region at the other end of the field.
As part of this Mexico vs Honduras prediction, it's important to consider their ability to pull off surprises, but Mexico have the momentum and the quality to get into the final, while Honduras have the experience of being giant-killers in these one-off games and have beat Panama in the previous round and the USA in the group stage. This could be close, but a Mexico win with both teams scoring looks a safer bet than taking the +990 that is on offer for Honduras to pull off a massive upset. For those interested, the best Mexico vs Honduras betting tips suggest backing the favorites but not underestimating Honduras’ spirit.
