- New York City FC have produced 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 3 MLS games at Yankee Stadium (W2, L1).
- Toronto FC have failed to win on their last 2 visits to New York City FC.
- New York City FC have conceded just nine MLS goals in 2025 at home (W7, L3).
Points vital for playoff-hunting pair
Pascal Jansen’s New York City FC are still mathematically alive ahead of Thursday’s match against Toronto.
City sit 14th in the MLS 2025 table with 28 points from 19 games while Toronto are 26th with 17 from the same number of matches.
Jansen’s men have been in mixed form of late, winning two, drawing one and losing two of their last five MLS matches, but their home form has been decent with two wins and a loss in their last three at Yankee Stadium.
Federico Bernardeschi remains Toronto’s most reliable goal source with four in 15 appearances this campaign, but Hannes Wolf has been NYCFC’s best finisher in 2025 with five in their last five games.
For those looking for this New York City FC vs Toronto FC preview, both teams have something to play for, making this an intriguing encounter.
Contrasting styles on display
Toronto boss Robin Fraser is a pragmatic coach who has a clear philosophy that his team will try to keep it tight in the early stages of games and allow the game to open up more as the match wears on.
NYCFC are much more of a possession-based side, more patient in the build-up and happy to control the flow of the fixture in the midfield areas.
That means NYCFC can dominate the ball possession in the first half, although a low-intensity pressing game from Toronto could stop them from breaking through as easily as they would like.
But Toronto will come on in the second half and Fraser will certainly get them to push for a late equaliser, which could make for an intriguing clash of styles. In our New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction, these contrasting approaches should result in an exciting tactical battle.
Home team have edge
Jansen has done well to retain the identity of NYCFC’s game this season, despite a tough start to the campaign after taking the helm in January 2025. He has kept the team solid defensively and they will look to impose their style on Toronto in the hope that they can grind out a win.
Alonso Martinez has been their best player in attack with eight goals in 16 league games this term, but Wolf’s recent form could earn him a spot in the starting lineup this week.
Given NYCFC’s solid home record and superior head-to-head record (4-0-1 from the last 5 meetings), we are going to back the hosts to snag the victory at an attractive New York City FC vs Toronto FC odds of +129.
Toronto are +218, although they won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, so we’ll chance +230 in the Draw line and are also going to take the ‘Under 2.5 goals’ option for value in this matchup. This New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction is based on recent form and home advantage, so our New York City FC vs Toronto FC betting tips will lean toward a home win.
