- Team form: Mexico have won 6, tied 3 and lost only 1 of their last 10 games in all competitions, winning their last 3.
- Home form: Mexico have won 4, drawn 3 and lost only 1 of their last 8 home games in all competitions (W4, D3, L1).
Mexico are the heavy favorites for a reason
Aguirre's influence
Mexico are the odds-on favorites to beat South Africa in a Group A encounter that will see the return of a story reminiscent of the opening fixture at the 2010 World Cup. Javier Aguirre took the reins of the Mexican national side in July 2024 and has immediately stamped his authority on the team. His 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formations are compact, structured and allow Mexico to play wide and progress in numbers without losing their shape. Their defensive discipline and pressing style allows them to dictate the pace of the game, and they have been excellent on home soil since the former Osasuna boss took over.
Home form and opposition
Mexico have won 4, drew 3 and lost only 1 of their last 8 at home (all-competitions) while South Africa's away record under Hugo Broos includes 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from three matches. However, South Africa will have a different approach this time and Mexico will need to be wary of a Bafana Bafana side that like to play physical, direct soccer and cause chaos in the hopes of taking advantage of turnovers.
Bafana Bafana are a physical side that can cause problems
Physicality and tactics
Hugo Broos has prioritised the physical side of the South African national team since his appointment, and although their results have been mixed, the quality of opponent has been decent. They have won 4, tie 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 in all-competitions, which is slightly less impressive than Mexico's recent form. South Africa also tend to use a flexible 4-2-3-1, which lends itself to direct play, set-piece play and high-intensity pressing.
Recent form
The recent results have been slightly below par, with a 1-2 defeat to Panama at home and a 0-0 draw with Nicaragua in Friendly International Matches 2026, but this fixture is a massive occasion for South Africa, which is sure to sharpen their minds. They will need to be at their best to have a chance of upsetting the odds-on Mexico.
Mexico to dominate, South Africa to provide a challenge
Outlook
Mexico are the better side, in far better form and have home-field advantage, so it is difficult to see past them getting the job done on Thursday, even if they do so by a couple of goals. There is likely to be a lot of Liga MX scouts out in force for this match, as well as European-based talent spotters on the lookout for South African talent.
Picks
- We're taking Mexico to cover the Asian Handicap for small stakes, as we don't feel they can be trusted to do so at such a short price, although a 2-0 victory would not be a surprise either.
- Oswin Appollis has scored 2 of South Africa's last 6 goals, while Johan Vasquez has netted 2 of Mexico's last 6, so we're supporting those two to cause problems for the opposing goalkeepers.
- Finally, we're playing the 'Both teams to score – No' market at 1.52 as Aguirre has really locked the back door since taking over.
