Pyramid Bets | 18 May 2026 - 24 May 2026

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

MONDAY May 18 2026

Arsenal vs Burnley
under 3.5 goals @1.93

good bounce back this weekend. 3 from 3 across the ladder and we keep the same energy and stay with the numbers. monday step is at the emirates and we taking the under angle at 1.93 which is a really nice price.

arsenal at home this season have been a defensive wall. they ship just 0.61 goals per home outing which is elite, and even when they score 2 or 3 they tend to manage the game rather than chase a 4th or 5th. their home record sits at 14 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 18, exactly the kind of structure that delivers controlled wins.

burnley are the perfect dance partner for this line. they have scored 20 in 18 away games which is around 1.1 per match, so they will probably get on the board, but they are not piling on goals against anyone. their away record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses, they go to grounds and try to keep things tight rather than push hard themselves.

the most likely scorelines here are 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 or 3-1. all of those land us comfortably under the line and that is exactly what we want. for the bet to lose you need a 4-goal swing from one of these sides and burnley are nowhere near a side that lets that happen, they sit deep and limit damage.

arsenal also have title race energy still, so arteta will not be telling his lads to chase a hammering, just control the game and bank the 3 points. one early goal and they shut the game down properly.

1.93 for the under in a fixture this controlled is the smart step worth taking for the ladder.

see yall tomorrow for the next step.

 

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

TUESDAY May 19 2026

Chelsea vs Tottenham
Chelsea to win @2.17

london derby at the bridge and we taking chelsea at home. 2.17 is a really nice price for a side that owns this matchup right now.

the head to head between these clubs is a one way street. chelsea have beaten spurs in 5 of their last 5 meetings, that is not a one-off pattern, that is full dominance. whatever the lineup or the form going in, chelsea always seem to find the answer in this fixture.

the prem numbers also tilt our way. chelsea have scored 55 and shipped 49 this season while spurs have 46 scored and 55 conceded. spurs ship more than they create which is exactly the profile we want to attack at the bridge.

chelsea at home have 6 wins and concede 1.33 per game in front of their own crowd. they are not bulletproof defensively but they have enough firepower to break spurs down and the home crowd in a derby always gives them an extra gear.

spurs have been wobbly all season and away from home they get bullied by sides with real attacking presence. one early goal here and the game opens up massively because spurs will have to chase, which only plays into chelsea's hands with their pace in transition.

2.17 for the home side with a 5-game winning head to head streak is the aggressive step worth taking for the ladder.

see yall tomorrow for the next step.

 

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

WEDNESDAY May 20 2026

SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa
under 2.5 goals @1.86

good bounce back yesterday. we keep the same energy and stay with the numbers. tonight is the europa league final in istanbul and we taking the under angle at 1.86 which is sitting in a really nice spot.

cup finals between two organised, experienced sides almost always start cagey. neither team wants to be the one to make the first mistake on a stage this big and that usually means a tight, controlled opening that rarely opens up before the second half.

freiburg under schuster have built their whole european run on tactical discipline and pragmatism. they keep games compact, ride out pressure and pick their moments. ginter at the back and atubolu in goal have been the spine of that defensive structure and they will set up exactly the same way for the final.

villa are the favourites and emery is the most decorated coach in europa league history... 4 titles tells you exactly how he handles finals. these are not high-scoring affairs for him, they are managed, controlled and won on margins. martinez in goal is one of the best in the world at locking these down too.

both teams know one goal could decide the trophy, so the tempo is going to be careful, the press will be measured and most of the chances will come from set pieces rather than open play. the matchup of villa's transitions against freiburg's compact block is exactly the kind of clash that delivers a 1-0 or 2-1 type of scoreline.

1.86 for the under in a final this tactical is the smart step worth taking for the ladder.

see yall tomorrow for the next step.

 

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

THURSDAY May 21 2026

Ajax vs Groningen
Groningen or Draw @1.90

going for a nice value spot here. ajax have not been great lately and even though they are still the favorites on paper, the numbers tell a different story when you look closer. groningen are unbeaten in three of their last five and they come in off two wins, so the form is actually on their side right now.

ajax at home have lost four and drawn four out of seventeen, which is not a fortress at all for a team supposed to dominate this league. groningen also won the reverse fixture 3 1 earlier in the season, so they already know they can hurt this ajax side.

with oscar garcia still adjusting things and groningen sitting more compact under lukkien and playing on the counter, this kind of game can easily turn into a draw or a smash and grab away win. at 1.90 the double chance covers both scenarios and that is exactly what makes it a smart step for the ladder.

see y'all tomorrow for the next step.

 

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

FRIDAY May 22 2026

Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Over 2.5 Goals @1.73

going with the numbers here. fiorentina home games this season have hit btts in over 60 percent of cases and atalanta away matches also clear the btts line at the same rate. when both profiles point in the same direction that is usually a good sign for goals.

atalanta come in with the stronger attacking output, 25 away goals and scamacca leading the line with 10 in 23 and two in his last five. moise kean has been the focal point for fiorentina with eight goals in 26 and even in tight games he gives them a way to find the net. four of the last five head to heads also produced both teams scoring.

fiorentina under vanoli are more compact and pragmatic now, but atalanta press high and create overloads, so the game state usually opens up. with both teams needing the result, one chasing europe and the other fighting for survival, this should not be a cagey one. over 2.5 at 1.73 is the cleanest read on this kind of matchup.

SATURDAY May 23 2026

Barcelona vs Valencia
Barcelona to Win @1.93

going with the stronger side here. barcelona have been at it all season, averaging 2.6 goals a game and sitting on 91 in laliga already. that is the kind of attacking output that breaks down most defences eventually, and at home in a game like this they will look to control everything.

form also lines up. four wins in their last five and 2+ goals in three of those games shows they are still firing in the closing weeks. valencia come into this without much to lean on against a side this complete.

head to head is even more one sided. barca beat valencia in all of the last five meetings, including 6 0 and 5 0 results, so there is a real psychological edge here too. at 1.93 the home win is a solid step for the ladder.

SUNDAY May 24 2026
Liverpool vs Brentford
BTTS Yes @1.49

closing the ladder with the numbers here. liverpool's matches have seen both teams score in 67.57 percent across the season and 66.67 percent at home, which tells you their games rarely end clean. that is the profile of a team that scores plenty but also gives chances away.

liverpool have also conceded in each of their last five, so even when they win they are not shutting teams out. brentford are not a powerhouse on the road but they have the kind of front players who can get on the end of one or two transitions, and against this liverpool defence one chance is usually enough.

with anfield expected to push for goals from minute one and brentford needing to play forward to stay in it, the game state should open up. at 1.49 btts yes feels very live for the weekend close.

see y'all monday for the next step.