VfL Bochum vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Best odds and tips

VfL Bochum’s 1-1 home draw with Union Berlin last Saturday followed a 0-0 away draw with Heidenheim the previous weekend, and the 18th-placed club remain bottom of the Bundesliga 2024/2025 table with just 22 points from 32 matches. Dieter Hecking, who took over as Bochum head coach in November 2024, has tried to instil a pragmatic, defence-first approach in a team that has been struggling for wins all season. Bochum’s home record is particularly poor, with 3 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses from 16 home matches this season. Hecking’s side set up a deep block and tries to catch opponents off guard with quick, direct transitions, and they have a few talented players to execute this plan, such as Myron Boadu. The Dutch forward has 7 Bundesliga goals in 17 appearances, and his pace and directness are a rare spark in this otherwise disappointing campaign.

1. FSV Mainz 05 are comfortably mid-table, sitting in 7th place with 48 points from 32 Bundesliga matches this season. Bo Henriksen took over at Mainz 05 in February 2024 and has since energised the team with his pressing style and attacking intent. Mainz’s midfield is a dynamo of energy and pressing, led by Leandro Barreiro, who has helped Mainz win the ball high up the pitch and transition quickly. Jonathan Burkardt has 16 Bundesliga goals in 27 appearances this season, making him one of the most dangerous finishers in the league.

Mainz 05 come into this game as slight favourites, with the bookies giving them odds of 2.338, compared to Bochum’s 3.05 and a draw at 3.87. However, both teams are winless in their last 5 Bundesliga games, with Mainz 05 losing their last 2 Bundesliga games (a 3-0 defeat to Bayern Munich away and a 1-1 draw at home with Eintracht Frankfurt). This is a clash of styles, and Bochum’s deep block against Mainz’s relentless pressing could lead to some interesting tactical battles in the midfield. The hosts have a poor record at home against Mainz, and the psychological pressure of this fixture could weigh on the hosts. With both teams winless in their last 5, and Bochum conceding an average of 1.81 goals per home game this season (29 goals in total), we think the best bet here is ‘under 2.5 total goals’, which suits Bochum’s style of play and both teams’ recent form.