- Ajax have won three of their last four Eredivisie 2024/2025 head-to-heads (D1, L0).
- Ajax have won 12 and drawn two of their 14 Eredivisie 2024/2025 home fixtures.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won four and drawn one of their last five matches in all competitions.
AFC Ajax have won 12 and drawn two of their 14 Eredivisie 2024/2025 home fixtures to date, making the Johan Cruyff Arena a fortress and underpinning their 73-point tally, which puts them top of the table and firmly in the title race. Head coach Francesco Farioli, who took over on July 1st 2024, has quickly established a possession-based, attacking philosophy which has seen Ajax play some fast-paced ‘Total Football’ in a 4-3-3 system. Ajax have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five matches in all competitions, and they have been in solid form at home with one win and one draw in their last two Eredivisie outings. Ajax have beaten NAC Breda 3-1 at home and Willem II 2-1 away, but they were thrashed 4-0 by FC Utrecht in their last away match, a result which highlighted their vulnerability when on the road.
Sparta Rotterdam have been in red-hot form in recent weeks, winning four and drawing one of their last five matches in all competitions, including back-to-back Eredivisie 2024/2025 home victories over NEC Nijmegen (2-0) and SC Heerenveen (3-1). Sparta are solid and unexciting, but have been effective in a pragmatic system that focuses on organisation and structure, and then hitting opponents on the counter-attack. Head coach Maurice Steijn, who took over on November 4th 2024, has overseen a resurgence for Sparta, who are currently 10th in the Eredivisie 2024/2025 with 34 points from 29 matches, a mid-table position that reflects their solidity.
Ajax are a very clear favourite for this match at 1.52, while Sparta Rotterdam are long shots at 6.50. Ajax are a good bet to take the win, but given their unbeaten home record, their dominance in the head-to-head record and the odds, it makes more sense to take Sparta on in the goals market. Ajax have conceded just ten goals in 14 Eredivisie 2024/2025 home matches, but Sparta won both of their last two away matches and could get on the scoresheet on Sunday. Sparta have won four, drawn four and lost six of their 14 Eredivisie 2024/2025 away matches this season, highlighting their inconsistency on the road, but they have won their last two Eredivisie away matches and could pull off an upset in Amsterdam. Ajax to win and both teams to score looks a good bet, but given the home side’s dominance and Sparta’s recent form, ‘Over 2.5 goals’ looks a smart alternative bet. Oliver Edvardsen leads the line for Ajax with 12 goals in 24 Eredivisie 2024/2025 appearances, while Tobias Lauritsen has nine for Sparta, making the Dane an ever-present threat. Sparta have conceded 17 goals in 14 away Eredivisie games, and they will need to keep Ajax at bay to get anything from the game, but they will be buoyed by the fact that they have failed to win in their last two trips to the Johan Cruyff Arena. A win for Sparta would be a statement result and would shake up the mid-table positions, but with Ajax in such good form at home, it is hard to see anything other than three points for the hosts.
