Hosts have their number
New York City FC have won four of the last five meetings between these two clubs with none ending in a draw, and there is no reason to think that the New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction will favor Toronto FC when they visit Yankee Stadium on Thursday.
Pascal Jansen’s team have been erratic in MLS 2025, winning two, drawing one and losing two of their last five, but according to the New York City FC vs Toronto FC odds, they have been better on home ground where they have won two and lost only one in their last three. A 4-0 home victory over 915806 last time out was impressive, but their away form remains poor and they were beaten 1-0 by CF Montreal just a day ago.
Jansen, who took over in January 2025, has kept the New York club’s system and style intact, which relies on dominant possession and patience in building up play. This can be frustrating, but the midfield is the heartbeat of the team, which ensures that the possession is not just aimless and can explode into life when Hannes Wolf starts to fire from outside the area.
Alonso Martinez has the most goals, eight in 16 league appearances, and has emerged as NYCFC’s key offensive player for the season. With that in mind, our New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction expects Martinez to be a difference maker.
Toronto can frustrate City FC at start
Toronto FC’s bench boss, Robin Fraser, has focused on shoring up Toronto’s defensive organization after taking over in January 2025.
The Canadian side have been hit by injuries and a poor run of results recently that shows as one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five.
Federico Bernardeschi is the main goal threat, although he has been modest by his own standards with four goals in 15 MLS appearances, and the strategy will be to keep things tight at the back and frustrate their hosts early on.
Toronto FC will press New York City FC better than most, but could be vulnerable when behind as they try to get forward in the latter stages of the game.
New York City FC’s home record and excellent head-to-head results in this fixture should have the hosts favored at 2.29 with Toronto FC the 3.18 underdogs and the draw 3.30. This is highlighted in the New York City FC vs Toronto FC preview for this matchup.
The clubs are both fighting for playoff places in their respective conferences and need points now to steady the ship.
It is unlikely to be a high-scoring fixture because Toronto FC will keep it tight at the beginning, but NYCFC’s superior possession should see them home.
Toronto FC have allowed 12 goals in seven MLS away games, while New York City FC have let in only nine at Yankee Stadium, so the home side’s defence should hold tight. Taking into account the form and current statistics, our New York City FC vs Toronto FC betting tips lean heavily toward another home win.
