- Toronto FC have won only one of their last four MLS home fixtures.
- FC Cincinnati have won four and drawn one of the last five MLS head-to-head meetings in USA MLS 2025.
- FC Cincinnati have won four and lost only one of their last five MLS matches.
Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati have been in very different form during the opening 12 games of the MLS 2025 season with the hosts sitting 26th with 10 points and the visitors in second place with 25 points. Robin Fraser has been trying to add some steel and structure to the Canadian side since taking over as manager in January and his team have won two and lost three of their last five MLS matches. They were denied a penalty shootout win at Montreal, drew 0-0 at New England and won 2-0 at home to D.C. United to get back on track. Toronto FC have gone winless in their last two home MLS matches against FC Cincinnati, with the most recent meeting seeing FC Cincinnati win 2-0 at home two months ago.
Pat Noonan has done a brilliant job since taking over as Cincinnati boss in December 2021 and his tactical flexibility has been key to their rapid rise up the Eastern Conference table. They play a 3-4-1-2 shape that allows them to be defensively disciplined when needed, but also creative enough to unleash talisman Evander in the hole where he can be a game-changer. Evander Ferreira has scored seven goals in ten MLS appearances in 2025 and three of them have come in Cincinnati’s last eight MLS matches. So the visitors should be able to get enough of the ball to create chances against Toronto’s 4-4-2 diamond formation, which is designed to control the midfield and organise the defence.
Toronto have been involved in a series of cagey games lately with all of their last five finishing under 2.5 goals and the 1.90 on offer here looks appealing. Cincinnati have been good enough to win three and lose three of their six MLS away fixtures this season, averaging 1.17 goals per game on their travels. Toronto have conceded only five goals in six MLS home fixtures this season, so there is some defensive organisation to their game of late. Deandre Kerr is their main goal threat with two in five MLS appearances this season, but Theodor Corbeanu has been their main man lately with two of their last four MLS goals coming from him. Cincinnati are a better side right now and should be able to nick this one on the road with the 2.20 favourites looking good to come away with three points on Wednesday.
