- The main selection won in the last H2H meeting between these nations (USA 2-1 Paraguay) in Friendly International Matches 2024/2025.
- USA have won three and lost two of their last five matches, scoring three goals in a 3-2 win over Senegal and conceding twice in a 0-2 defeat to Portugal in their last home games.
- Paraguay have won two and lost three of their last five, picking up impressive away wins over Mexico (2-1) and Greece (1-0) and suffering a defeat against Morocco (2-1).
Home advantage could swing it in favour of the hosts
A USA side boasting quality and tempo under Mauricio Pochettino are expected to start their FIFA World Cup campaign in Group D on Saturday with a narrow victory over a dogged Paraguay outfit. The USA have a home advantage in this clash, as well as a slight edge in terms of form and ability, but both nations will have a point to prove at the tournament.
Pochettino has been at the helm since September 2024, and his proactive, high-energy approach to the game has been perfect for the USA's athleticism and rotation-heavy system, which sees a 4-3-3 system morph into a 4-2-3-1 as the full-backs advance to create overloads and vertical progression. However, the USA will need to keep their backline in front of them here to have a chance of defeating a Paraguay side that have been defensively organized under Gustavo Alfaro since he took over in August 2024.
Paraguay are perhaps the most boring team to watch in the world at the moment as Alfaro has them sat deep in a narrow 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 and have them extremely compact in a tight defensive block. With experienced and disciplined centre-backs for them to operate in front of and a real thirst for counter-attacking or set-piece chances when they do win the ball back, Paraguay can frustrate teams who prefer to play possession-based football, such as USA.
The draw and Paraguay are overpriced, but the hosts could just have enough
The odds for the draw (3.5), Paraguay (3.94) and USA (2.04) look skewed ahead of this matchup, as the Americans have the home ground advantage and have been the more consistent of the two teams over the last year or so. However, we're going to take Paraguay to hold out for a draw at the very least, as they are more than capable of getting some form of result on the road on the counter-attack or from set plays.
Paraguay have won twice and lost three times in their last five away fixtures in all competitions, while USA have won three and lost two of their last five home games.
Given that the USA have scored an average of 1.80 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.70 in their last 10 at home (W5, D1, L4), we're backing the under 2.5 goals market at 1.63 in what should be a cagey and tactical affair, but the favourites should have just enough in the tank to squeeze out a win in front of a pumped-up home crowd.
