- USA won 3 & lost 2 of their last 5, beating Senegal 3-2 but losing 2-0 to Portugal.
- Paraguay won 2 & lost 3 of their last 5, winning 2-1 vs Mexico and 1-0 vs Greece away, but losing 2-1 to Morocco.
Home advantage & USA’s momentum & style should see the favourites through
USA will get the FIFA World Cup 2026 underway in style with a home opener against Paraguay on Saturday. It is an interesting fixture between two different styles of football which could suit the US Men's National Team.
Mauricio Pochettino has been in charge of the US since September 2024, and he has brought a high-energy, proactive approach to the side which suits the American players' athleticism and rotation in positions. Their 4-3-3 sets up with attacking full-backs in the final third, and dynamic midfield players who can create overloads and progress vertically up the pitch when the ball is won back.
Paraguay have played with a far more pragmatic, risk-averse and transition-based style since Gustavo Alfaro took over as head coach in August 2024. They play a compact 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 system, set up with a narrow defensive block, experience at the heart of their defence and players who can strike on the counter or from set pieces.
Head-to-head & home advantage can swing it for the Stars & Stripes
Paraguay can be a dangerous side away from home, as evidenced by their 2-1 win over Mexico during the last international break or their 1-0 win in Greece a few months earlier, but their away form in their last 5 has been 2 wins and 3 defeats, so they can be vulnerable away from home and have defensive frailties which USA can exploit.
USA have played with more attacking flair since Pochettino arrived, but they also have the ability to keep it tight when necessary, and they can use their home ground advantage to make it a tough ask for any opponent. The last head-to-head meeting saw USA edge out Paraguay 2-1 in the Friendly International Matches in 2024/25, so the hosts have a psychological edge for this clash, and should be able to nick it.
Paraguay can make a cagey opening clash difficult for USA
The odds for the hosts to win this opening match is 26/25, while Paraguay are as big as 147/50 and the draw is 5/2. There are obviously more questions about USA because they are the favourites, but with home-field advantage, their recent form and playing style should be enough to edge this. Under 2.5 goals looks the way to go at 63/100, as this could be a cagey opener with Paraguay sitting in a defensive block and looking to frustrate their opponents.
A narrow victory for USA is the recommendation here, because while they are favourites, there is nothing about Paraguay that suggests they can't make this tough in front of an amped crowd, full of expectation as the USA hosts the tournament.
