- Joined
- Jul 14, 2025
Today's ACCA of the Day brings a packed Saturday slate of pre-World Cup friendlies, with picks spread across warm-ups in North America and Europe. Six legs, strong upside, and every pick has a clear data angle behind it. 
Canada vs Republic of Ireland
Canada to Win - at 1.55
Canada head into their final World Cup warm-up on a seven-game unbeaten run (W3, D4) built on six clean sheets, showing they have the defensive base to control friendlies. Ireland have been impressive too with three games unbeaten since their playoff exit but they have lost five of their last eight on hostile soil, while Tani Oluwaseyi's second-half impact off the bench gives Canada a late edge to back the home win cleanly at 1.55.
Belgium vs Tunisia
Belgium to Win - at 1.31
Belgium are unbeaten since March 2025 (W8, D4) and most recently won 2-0 away at Croatia, arriving in strong shape under Rudi Garcia. They have also kept clean sheets in four of their last five home matches, while Tunisia have managed just one win in their last six (against No. 83 Haiti) and were beaten by an Austria side reduced to ten men. Youri Tielemans is in form with goal contributions in each of the last two, anchoring the slip cleanly at 1.31.
Portugal vs Chile
BTTS: No - at 1.75
Chile have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 away matches and arrive having lost four of their last five trips, including a 4-1 hammering by a poor New Zealand side. Portugal are among the World Cup favourites with an elite midfield of Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha and Joao Neves, and Roberto Martinez's side scored 20 goals across their 6 qualifiers, so they should comfortably shut out a struggling La Roja at 1.75.
Romania vs Wales
BTTS: Yes - at 1.90
Romania matches end with both teams scoring in 50% of cases this season and average 3.0 total goals, while Wales sit at 60% BTTS with an even higher 3.3 goals per game. Recent form is just as supportive with Romania drawing 1-1 against Georgia and Wales playing out 1-1 results against Northern Ireland and Ghana in this same camp, lining up the Yes side cleanly at 1.90.
USA vs Germany
Over 2.5 Goals - at 1.42
USA matches have averaged 3.50 total goals in their last 10 with 70% landing BTTS, and they arrive off a 3-2 win over Senegal that highlights their attacking approach. Germany ride an eight-game winning streak having beaten Finland 4-0, scoring 2.60 per game across their last 10 outings, and with Nick Woltemade leading the line in Undav's absence, two attacking sides line up cleanly for the over at 1.42.
England vs New Zealand
BTTS: No - at 1.38
England have conceded just 5 goals in 12 games under Thomas Tuchel and have not conceded once against teams ranked 75th or worse by FIFA in their last 11 such attempts. New Zealand sit 85th, have lost 8 of their last 10 internationals and were thrashed 4-0 by Haiti in their opening June friendly, a profile that makes an away goal genuinely unlikely against an elite England defence at 1.38.
Combined Odds: 13.23
Clean spread on the slip, two match-winners, two BTTS No, one BTTS Yes and one Over 2.5. Safest anchor is Belgium at home at 1.31 backed by elite home form, biggest upside sits with the Romania vs Wales BTTS Yes at 1.90, and the England vs New Zealand BTTS No adds reliable value behind an elite Tuchel defence.
Canada vs Republic of Ireland Canada to Win - at 1.55 Canada head into their final World Cup warm-up on a seven-game unbeaten run (W3, D4) built on six clean sheets, showing they have the defensive base to control friendlies. Ireland have been impressive too with three games unbeaten since their playoff exit but they have lost five of their last eight on hostile soil, while Tani Oluwaseyi's second-half impact off the bench gives Canada a late edge to back the home win cleanly at 1.55. Belgium vs Tunisia Belgium to Win - at 1.31 Belgium are unbeaten since March 2025 (W8, D4) and most recently won 2-0 away at Croatia, arriving in strong shape under Rudi Garcia. They have also kept clean sheets in four of their last five home matches, while Tunisia have managed just one win in their last six (against No. 83 Haiti) and were beaten by an Austria side reduced to ten men. Youri Tielemans is in form with goal contributions in each of the last two, anchoring the slip cleanly at 1.31. Portugal vs Chile BTTS: No - at 1.75 Chile have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 away matches and arrive having lost four of their last five trips, including a 4-1 hammering by a poor New Zealand side. Portugal are among the World Cup favourites with an elite midfield of Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha and Joao Neves, and Roberto Martinez's side scored 20 goals across their 6 qualifiers, so they should comfortably shut out a struggling La Roja at 1.75. Romania vs Wales BTTS: Yes - at 1.90 Romania matches end with both teams scoring in 50% of cases this season and average 3.0 total goals, while Wales sit at 60% BTTS with an even higher 3.3 goals per game. Recent form is just as supportive with Romania drawing 1-1 against Georgia and Wales playing out 1-1 results against Northern Ireland and Ghana in this same camp, lining up the Yes side cleanly at 1.90. USA vs Germany Over 2.5 Goals - at 1.42 USA matches have averaged 3.50 total goals in their last 10 with 70% landing BTTS, and they arrive off a 3-2 win over Senegal that highlights their attacking approach. Germany ride an eight-game winning streak having beaten Finland 4-0, scoring 2.60 per game across their last 10 outings, and with Nick Woltemade leading the line in Undav's absence, two attacking sides line up cleanly for the over at 1.42. England vs New Zealand BTTS: No - at 1.38 England have conceded just 5 goals in 12 games under Thomas Tuchel and have not conceded once against teams ranked 75th or worse by FIFA in their last 11 such attempts. New Zealand sit 85th, have lost 8 of their last 10 internationals and were thrashed 4-0 by Haiti in their opening June friendly, a profile that makes an away goal genuinely unlikely against an elite England defence at 1.38. Combined Odds: 13.23 Clean spread on the slip, two match-winners, two BTTS No, one BTTS Yes and one Over 2.5. Safest anchor is Belgium at home at 1.31 backed by elite home form, biggest upside sits with the Romania vs Wales BTTS Yes at 1.90, and the England vs New Zealand BTTS No adds reliable value behind an elite Tuchel defence.