Pyramid Bets | 17 August 2026 - 23 August 2026

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

WEDNESDAY August 19 2026

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami
Inter Miami to Win @2.20

this fixture has a habit of turning into a shootout and there is no reason to expect anything different tonight. three or more goals have landed in each of the last seven meetings between these two, both teams have scored in 79 percent of their head to head matches, and the historical average sits close to 3.7 goals a game between them.

philadelphia are solid at home but they are not exactly a defensive wall, keeping a clean sheet in only around a third of their home games this season. that is the kind of gap messi, suarez and berterame will look to exploit, and between the three of them inter miami are carrying one of the most dangerous attacks in the league right now. messi alone has put up 88 shots and 35 on target this season, de paul keeps feeding the right players, and this group does not need a settled game state to create problems.

philadelphia can absolutely score their share too, which is exactly why this is not a banker pick, it is a smart-to-aggressive step. the numbers point to goals at both ends, but inter miami have the extra gear to edge a track meet like this one. at 2.20 this is a nice price for the ladder on a night that looks built for chaos rather than control.

see y'all tomorrow for the next step.

 

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

THURSDAY August 20 2026

Benfica vs Aarhus
Benfica -1.5 Asian Handicap @1.61

that inter miami game turned into exactly the kind of track meet the numbers pointed to, messi got his goal and his assist like always, but philadelphia would not stay down and the red cards at the end summed up how chaotic it got. two goals covered the bets in that game just not the winning margin. we move on with the numbers.

benfica are flying right now and aarhus are walking into the worst possible version of this tie. benfica put six past hearts in the first leg of the previous round and followed it with a 7-0 domestic league win, so the form is not just good, it is emphatic. aarhus meanwhile just shipped four goals to sabah in their own league, which tells you everything about where their defense is at heading into the luz.

the class gap here is not close. benfica have more talent in every position and a home crowd that expects goals, not just a result. aarhus have shown zero signs they can slow a team like this down for ninety minutes, and once benfica get an early goal or two the door usually swings wide open from there.

backing benfica to win by two or more feels like the right read on how this one plays out rather than just the straight win price, which barely moves the needle. at 1.61 this is a smart step that leans toward aggressive given how open aarhus have looked lately.

see y'all tomorrow for the next step.

 

[DarwizzyThaGoat]

FRIDAY August 21 2026

good bounce back yesterday. we keep the same energy and stay with the numbers. benfica put three past aarhus at the luz, rafa opening it inside two minutes, barreiro doubling it before the half and pavlidis wrapping it up from the spot, jorgensen's reply for aarhus was never enough to threaten the handicap. clean step on the ladder.

Arsenal vs Coventry City Over 2.5 Goals @1.95

the premier league is back and arsenal open the title defense at home against a coventry side that has not played top flight football in twenty five years. arsenal have beaten coventry in five straight meetings and looked sharp beating city in the community shield, so the quality gap is obvious, but this is not really about who wins, it is about how many go in.

coventry are stepping up two divisions worth of quality in one summer and arsenal have the kind of attacking depth that punishes exactly that kind of gap early season. the numbers back a high scoring game, models have this clearing 2.5 in almost two thirds of simulations, and arsenal at home in an opener with a full emirates behind them usually means they go looking for goals rather than sitting on a lead.

at 1.95 this is a nice value spot to open the ladder for the weekend, the kind of aggressive step that fits a team with a point to prove after last season ended in europe with a defeat.

SATURDAY August 22 2026

Brentford vs Tottenham BTTS Yes @1.60

this one looks properly even on paper, brentford and tottenham are both projected inside a few points of each other in win probability, and when two sides are this close in quality it usually means neither can fully shut the other down.

brentford have been solid at home and tottenham always carry enough going forward to trouble most defenses in the league, over 2.5 goals is favoured by the numbers here too, and with almost two thirds of simulations landing goals at both ends, both teams to score feels like the smarter read than picking a winner in a game this tight.

keeping it smart for this step, 1.60 on both teams scoring fits a fixture where the game state should stay open the whole ninety.

SUNDAY August 23 2026

Newcastle vs Liverpool Liverpool to Win @1.86

closing the opening weekend with the champions travelling to st james' park. liverpool carry the better attacking depth into this one and models lean toward the away side doing enough on the road, with one projection landing on a 1-2 finish that fits how these two usually play out early season.

newcastle at home always make this uncomfortable, the atmosphere alone can flip a game's tempo fast, but liverpool's squad has more ways to win a scrappy one than newcastle have ways to stop them for the full ninety.

this is the more aggressive play to close the weekend, but the numbers make sense, liverpool at 1.86 on the road feels like the right way to end round one on the ladder.

see y'all monday for the next step.