- Birkenhead are clear favorites to win on Saturday and are unbeaten in six.
- Birkenhead have won the last four meetings between the clubs outright.
Birkenhead are top dogs in National League
Birkenhead United have been flying in the Northern section of the National League and sit top of the table after around 44 points from 16 matches. Melville United are languishing at the other end of the ladder with single-digit to low-teens points and a negative goal difference. The head-to-head suggests there's a good chance Birkenhead will win this one outright because they've won the previous four meetings, keeping clean sheets in three. The 9-0 victory that Birkenhead recorded over Melville in Northern League history is the biggest ever scoreline between the two clubs, and there's no reason to think that it will be Melville getting the better of the hosts on Saturday. Birkenhead are playing at their best, with six unbeaten and five wins from their last six, including a 4-0 win over Auckland United and a 3-2 triumph over Auckland City. Paul Hobson has set up his team to play on the front foot and they've been scoring freely in recent weeks - 16 times in their last six - with a ruthless efficiency in the last third.
Visitors have a lot on their plate
Melville have had a mixed to poor run of results, with one draw and five losses from their last six. They've not been able to stop the bleeding at the back, conceding at least once in the same six-game period, but they've done a good job of getting on the scoresheet in three of those games.
The visitors have been clinical in those games and can thank Lucca Lim and Ryen Lawrence for their midfield runs and set piece threat. Luis Hamblin is Melville's main outlet going forward and he'll have the best chance of scoring on the break for the visitors, which makes him a worthy contender in the anytime goal-scorer market.
Aaron Scott and Harry Trethowan have set Melville up to be more compact in recent matches, favoring structure over open, end-to-end football. That's not a bad thing, but with Shepherds Park and the long haul from Hamilton to Auckland for Melville, Birkenhead have a slight advantage in terms of home edge and the cooler, cloudy weather should suit this high-energy league perfectly.
Birkenhead have the killer instinct
The hosts are very clearly the superior team and the favourites for a reason. If they can play with the same momentum that they have in their recent games, they should have no problem carving out enough chances to win. We think a 2-0 or 3-1 victory is most likely for Birkenhead, although it could go either way based on the recent form of both teams.
Josh Redfearn has been the playmaker for Birkenhead, providing plenty of goals and linking up to stretch the defence and play Monty Patterson through. He's the most likely player to benefit from any free-kick opportunities on the left-hand side on Saturday.