- PSV Eindhoven have won their last five games, with goals galore for their Eredivisie title chase
- Newcastle have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five in all competitions, with a penalty shoot-out win in the FA Cup
- Newcastle and PSV have only faced each other competitively twice, with Magpies progressing 3-2 on aggregate in a 2003/04 UEFA Cup quarter-final
Top-heavy tactical clash may be decided by midfield mastery
These two clubs have faced each other only twice in their long histories, both games in the 2003/04 UEFA Cup, when Newcastle won 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-final, but no modern rivalry exists and it would be foolish to compare the two squads as they are today.
Newcastle are currently somewhere in the 6th to 9th place of the Premier League with roughly 32-33 points on the board, which looks like a European season by their previous standards, but it has been an inconsistent campaign so far.
Eddie Howe has created a compact 4-3-3 system that is solid in defence, but can also create chaos with the quality they have in the front four and the midfielders able to press the triggers. Newcastle have been a little more open recently due to injuries, especially to Fabian Schär, but have been able to adjust the system without losing too much structure.
PSV Eindhoven have been on a different trajectory recently, winning five consecutive matches in all competitions, including a 4-1 KNVB Beker win. They top the Dutch top-flight with 52 points from 19 games and look to be on course to retain the title.
Dutch dominance
Peter Bosz has clearly turned PSV into a completely different beast, and they are now a high-pressing, possession-dominant side that creates as many chances as they can through central overloads and aggressive transitions.
Dennis Man provides the pace and incisive finishing from the flanks, but he is being monitored for fitness after a recent knock. Guus Til has shared the goals in the attack while Ismael Saibari has been a breakout star, bagging a hat-trick against Feyenoord in January, and Couhaib Driouech adds another dimension.
Both teams are going to be desperate for the points as they are both pushing for a top-eight finish in the Champions League league phase to secure direct Round of 16 qualification, making this fixture critical for knockout seeding. It should be an exciting game and the bookies have the odds for both teams to score at 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 for a reason.
Home advantage could swing it
Newcastle are favorites at 1.44, with PSV 5.75 outsiders and the draw 5.1, so there is a clear home advantage and edge to the market on this occasion. The home side have just a little more creativity in midfield, although PSV’s attack is on fire at the moment, so the draw looks a bit short.
With the cold, breezy and potentially wet conditions at St James’ Park on Wednesday, the Magpies’ physicality and ability to transition from defence to attack quickly might be a bit better than the visitors.
Newcastle will be without a key central defender, so we could see an away goal in this contest, which could be decided by which team has the most quality in set pieces and which manager wins the midfield battle. That could be Howe, given Bruno Guimarães is still the lynchpin of Newcastle’s play and has provided goals and assists to help them over the line in cup ties this season.
Harvey Barnes can provide pace and a late goal on his day while Anthony Gordon is a direct runner and a good penalty-taker. Both sides will definitely find the net and a Newcastle win with both sides to score and over 2.5 goals could be the best play here.
