- Uzbekistan have won six of their last ten matches (D1, L3) while Colombia have won seven of their last ten (D1, L2).
- Uzbekistan have lost their last two matches (2-1 v Netherlands and 2-0 v Canada) but both were away from home.
- Colombia have avoided defeat in their last three away matches (W2, D1), conceding just 3 goals for an average of 1.00 per game.
Central Asian test for Colombia
Uzbekistan will be in unfamiliar territory when they take the field at Mexico City Stadium on Thursday to face Colombia in their first ever FIFA World Cup Finals appearance. There is nothing familiar about this clash for either nation as it is the first ever competitive senior match between the sides.
Fabio Cannavaro's Uzbekistan play a pragmatic 3-4-3 system, which prioritises a compact, low block and rapid transitions off the back of a central striker. Abdukodir Khusanov is the pivot of their three-man defence, marshalling his men and maintaining the system from his anchor position.
Eldor Shomurodov is the focal point of Uzbekistan's attack and is often the target when they are looking to hit teams on the break. Jaloliddin Masharipov adds width and a directness to their frontline, often starting attacks from wide areas and using his tricks and vision to help build opportunities.
Colombia are a more creative side than Uzbekistan, with Néstor Lorenzo opting to play a 4-2-3-1 system that allows his midfield to rotate and create overloads. James Rodríguez orchestrates the attack and dictates the tempo with the ball at his feet, while Luis Díaz brings his pace and trickery to the wing, often stretching the opposition to the maximum before laying off.
Tight match likely, but Colombia to edge it
Jhon Arias has been Colombia's in-form attacker with three of his side's ten goals in their last five matches coming from the forward's boot. But Colombia will need to make a break through Uzbekistan's defence to get him on the scoresheet.
The bookies make Colombia clear favourites at 1.44 for this matchup, with Uzbekistan listed as outsiders at 8.5 and the draw at 4.6. The odds are against the Central Asian side here, although their penalty shootout win over Venezuela last time out shows their grit and determination.
We're backing Colombia to come out on top here as they have the superior form of the two sides, the attacking depth and the better odds. But Uzbekistan's ability to set up a low-block system could keep this contest close, so we're taking Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 as well.
