- Palace are 3-0 up on Fiorentina in this UEFA Conference League quarter-final after their first leg win.
- Fiorentina are 16th in Serie A, struggling to avoid relegation with 32 points from 31 games and a European run to juggle.
First-leg firepower should see Palace through
Fiorentina need to score at least three unanswered goals to take Crystal Palace to extra time in this tie, so a fast start and a relentless home record will be required if they are to beat a Palace side who have hit their stride in Europe with a first-leg rout and comfortable progression past AEK Larnaca in the last round. The hosts need their top Serie A goalscorer Moise Kean to come good on Thursday, but Palace’s superior away-day management and counter-attacking options should see them through to the semi-finals.
Palace boss Oliver Glasner has implemented his high-intensity pressing game with devastating effect at Selhurst Park, seeing his side create a 3-0 cushion with which to play in Florence on Thursday. The Eagles’ best chance of progression will come with a draw or a narrow defeat in the second leg, so ‘Palace to qualify’ is a solid bet, rather than a straight Palace win at 2.56. A 1-0 away win has some value, as the sold-out Stadio Artemio Franchi will be an intimidating place to visit for the visitors, but we will go for the qualifying market as a safer option.
Fast transitions and pace in wide areas will decide the tie
This game will be fascinating from a tactical point of view as Palace have a very vertical, transition-focused game in which they try to press to win the ball back, and then play direct passes to the strikers through the half-spaces. Fiorentina play structured football, probing for a chance in the final third, and creating wide overloads, before switching tempo and looking to create.
Paolo Vanoli has done a solid job of steadying the ship at Fiorentina since his appointment in November, but has also added a bit of flexibility and a more aggressive approach from wide areas. Giovanni Fabbian and Daichi Kamada should be the creative spark in midfield again, but they will need to have their best game of the season after a quiet first leg.
Fiorentina’s new-look back four of Robin Gosens and Fabiano Parisi will have to be up to the task of providing width from wing-back positions and dealing with Palace counters. Jean-Philippe Mateta’s return to Palace’s lineup was a good move from Glasner, as the Frenchman scored from the spot in the first leg and added a clinical edge to the attack. Ismaïla Sarr showed his pace and ability on the break in the 3-0 win when he scored Palace’s third goal, and his ability to run at Fiorentina’s defense on the counter-attack will be a constant threat in Florence.
A wet and windy night in Firenze
We are expecting a wet and blustery evening in Firenze, and we’re not expecting a game that goes down to the last kick. A draw in this match would be a great result for Palace, who are now in the driving seat after a dominant display in the south-east of England in the first leg.
The odds are pretty close for the teams to win in the outright market, with Palace 2.56, Fiorentina 2.72 and the draw at 3.2. The odds reflect the situation of this match well enough, but we would rather take a bigger price on Palace to see the tie through to the next round than the hosts, given the nature of the away day they face and the fact that Fiorentina will be in panic mode at the break, needing three unanswered to even reach extra time.
