- AC Milan have won just one of their last five Serie A matches (D1, L3).
- Atalanta Bergamo are on a run of no wins in five in all competitions (D2, L3).
- Atalanta have won two of the last three meetings between the clubs, with Milan failing to win any of their last three home clashes with La Dea.
Allegri’s Milan can keep things tight in a big Serie A fixture
AC Milan should keep things really tight and tactically tight at San Siro on Sunday when the Rossoneri face off against an improving Atalanta in a match that could have significant implications for the European qualification picture in 2025-26’s Serie A. Massimiliano Allegri has done a great job since taking charge in May of last year and turned Milan into a tough to beat, yet flexible system that can be set up in a number of different formations.
The Rossoneri’s solidity and control of the ball on their own terms has seen them sit third in the table on 67 points from 35 games, but Raffaele Palladino’s Atalanta are no slouches on 55 points in seventh after the same amount of fixtures. The Bergamo club have been much more tactically pragmatic since Palladino took charge in November, adding a little more tactical nous to the traditional verticality of the Atalanta way and a greater emphasis on pressing opponents at the right times.
Their games haven’t exactly been goal-fests since, although they have been edging closer to the ideal balance of defence and attack that Palladino’s predecessor, Gian Piero Gasperini, was unable to achieve. After a penalty shootout loss to Lazio in the Coppa Italia midweek, Atalanta have gone five games without a win in all competitions (D2, L3) and that will give Milan some encouragement ahead of Sunday’s Serie A match at San Siro.
Compact hosts can clog up Atalanta
Milan have won nine of their 17 home Serie A games, but drawn five and lost three, averaging 1.29 goals per match at home. Atalanta have won five, drawn seven and lost five of 17 away from Bergamo, averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per match on their travels.
Milan’s recent Serie A games have seen them win at Verona and draw 0-0 with Juventus, while their previous two away games saw them lose 2-0 to Sassuolo. Atalanta’s last away game finished in a 3-2 defeat to Cagliari, while they drew 0-0 with Genoa in their previous home match.
Allegri is likely to set Milan up to control the tempo and limit the transitions, where they can be vulnerable, by keeping the ball and pressing in selected areas. Both teams like to stretch the play with their wing-backs, but Milan’s gameplan should negate that for Atalanta and limit their chances to the counter. A cagey game, where the defences come out on top, looks the most likely scenario given the nature of the teams, the importance of the fixture and the odds on a draw of 3.47.
Swerve Atalanta’s forwards
The odds on this game staying under 2.5 goals at 2.08 look very attractive indeed given neither side has been prolific recently, so that is the main selection, while both teams to score - no also looks good at 2.17. The last meeting between these clubs finished 1-1 in Bergamo and another deadlock looks the most probable outcome on the score prediction market, although a narrow win for Milan or Atalanta can’t be ruled out.
Rafael Leao remains Milan’s biggest threat in the final third with nine goals in 27 Serie A appearances this season, while Gianluca Scamacca continues to lead the Atalanta charts with ten goals in 23 games. Nikola Krstovic has chipped in with two of the Bergamo outfit’s last six, which could be a timely boost for Palladino.
