- Atlético Madrid will try to lock the game down and attack on the counter.
- Arsenal will play their best football at home, with fluidity, intensity and tempo.
- BTTS: No is a good bet here, but the game may be decided by a corner, sub or VAR decision.
A cagey affair as both managers play their hand
These two sides are evenly matched on paper and in terms of form, but Atlético Madrid will arrive in London on Tuesday hoping to make Arsenal sweat. The Spaniards are outsiders at 5.49 for this game, but Arsenal are clear favourites at 1.69 and the bookies have this one right - home advantage is a huge factor here and Arsenal have dominated Atlético at the Emirates recently.
Atlético are an uncompromising, disciplined and compact unit and will try to keep this matchup tight and cagey until the last moment. They switch between a 4-4-2 and a 3-5-2 formation and can be as compact as any side in world football. They will be solid through the centre, where Diego Simeone has packed the central areas, and will punish Arsenal on the break and from set pieces.
Arsenal are a different type of beast altogether, with Mikel Arteta having transformed the Gunners into a possession-dominant, high-pressing outfit since his arrival at the club. They deploy inverted full-backs and can play a hybrid 4-3-3/3-2-4-1 system that gives them width and depth while also giving them numbers in central areas to outnumber opponents and allow the playmakers to shine.
Simeone can get the best out of his men in Europe
Arteta’s meticulous preparation and attention to fitness has seen the Gunners maintain an impressive league campaign while also competing in Europe, but the tight turnaround may just play into the hands of Simeone, who has an uncanny ability to get the absolute maximum out of his side in knockout ties.
Atlético are fourth in LaLiga, with roughly 60 points from 33 matches and a goal difference of +19, as they battle it out for the top four. It’s been a patchy season for the Spaniards, which included a dramatic penalty shootout defeat in the Copa del Rey final, a defeat to Elche and a 3 - 2 comeback win over Athletic, as well as a gutsy aggregate win over Barcelona in the UCL quarter-final. Their gritty performance in Madrid last week was another example of Atlético’s ability to grind out results in big European games.
Arsenal can grind it out in big games
But Arsenal can also grind out a result in the biggest games, as they did against Sporting CP to progress in the previous round and in Madrid against Atlético. In fact, Atlético won the last knockout tie between these two when they beat Arsenal 2-1 on aggregate in the semi-final of the Europa League back in 2018.
Arsenal are top of the Premier League with around 70 points from 33 matches, locked in a tense title race with Man City. Both sides have been very consistent this season and it’s unlikely either manager will have a bad day at the office on Tuesday, when the winner will book a place in Budapest in the Champions League final in June.
Arsenal could make history by landing the double, while Atleti have it all to play for as European success could just about salvage their season. Arteta’s side beat Atlético 4-0 at the Emirates in the group stage of this UCL campaign, with Gyökeres hitting a brace in that game and it’s a good omen for the hosts.
Saka can be a game changer
Bukayo Saka is the most dangerous wide player in the Premier League and has the ability to change a game in a flash. Arsenal have no other players with that sort of ability, but Eberechi Eze can provide an element of surprise as he did when he popped up with the winner against Newcastle. Gyökeres gives Arsenal a big presence and a clinical finisher up top, who can hold the ball up and play on the shoulder of defenders.
Atleti’s star man is arguably Antoine Griezmann, who is the heartbeat of the team and provides real creativity and class to Simeone’s side. Álvarez gives Atleti a different dimension as he is the direct option and a real goal threat from various positions. Simeone will get a tune out of his players on Tuesday and the Atleti fans will be up for it.
Emirates cauldron should favour hosts
The Arsenal crowd will be in full voice for this one and will make the Emirates a cauldron of noise, which could sway the mood of the match and influence refereeing decisions. I can’t see either side getting a comfortable victory and this is likely to be a razor-tight game, where a corner, a substitution or a VAR decision could be pivotal.
Under 2.5 goals is a touch too short here at 1.96, but BTTS: No is a solid bet at 1.8 and I’m going with Arsenal to get through, either by a 2-1 scoreline or by restricting Atleti to a draw and progressing on aggregate.
