- Brisbane Roar Youth's recent form is poor, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 games.
- Moreton City Excelsior are in decent form, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches.
- Moreton City's preferred tactic is to sit deep and use their pace on the break, so this should be a possession vs counter game, which often makes for an exciting fixture.
A solid punt on the visitors
Moreton City Excelsior FC, listed at 1.44, are the clear favourites to defeat Brisbane Roar Youth on Sunday and it's easy to see why. Not only are they the much higher-achieving team in NPL Queensland 2026, sitting 3rd on 36 points from 19 games, but the hosts sit 12th on 13 points from 19 matches. Brisbane have won none of their last 3 home games against this opponent, so the visitors have the momentum and form to clinch it.
Brisbane City and Brisbane Olympic FC have beaten Brisbane Roar Youth in away fixtures, which is worrying as this home game is a must-win. A 2-2 draw at home to Peninsula Power in their most recent NPL Queensland 2026 fixture tells us that this Moreton City side can dig deep when needed.
Brisbane are more of a passing side
Brisbane play a possession first 4-3-3, where they attempt to get their full-backs into the attack, to stretch the play, which suits their attacking midfielders and wide players who like to combine in wide areas. Cameron Millar's Moreton City Excelsior FC, who have been in charge since 1st November 2022, are a much more pragmatic 4-2-3-1 side, who sit deep and are incredibly dangerous in transition.
Moreton City Excelsior FC are 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from 9 away games in NPL Queensland 2026, and have scored 1.89 goals per game on average on their travels (17 goals total). Brisbane have conceded 21 goals in 9 home games in the same competition, so should be warned.
Backing goals is a logical play
We're likely to avoid the short odds for the away win and go Over 2.5 goals here. This should be a contrasting styles matchup and Brisbane are a team that likes to get forward, but are often left hanging by a poor defence, so that's a strong play here.
The odds on the goals are also pleasing, with Over 2.5 at 1.25 and Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.33. Brisbane's games typically feature goals.
