- Caboolture have three wins and two losses in their last five matches, averaging over 2.2 goals per game in the Queensland Premier League.
- Rochedale Rovers are 9th out of 12 in NPL Queensland with a negative goal difference and have been more inconsistent in the league this season.
- Caboolture sit around 4th in the QPL with a positive goal difference reflecting a strong campaign in 2026. Rochedale are 9th out of 12 in NPL Qld.
FFA Cup 2026: Rochedale Rovers are favourites
FFA Cup Queensland qualifying is a straight knockout, which means this cross-division tie between NPL Queensland Rochedale Rovers and QPL Caboolture will be an important match for both sides if they want to stay in the competition for another round and potentially secure an Australia Cup run.
The hosts, Caboolture, are outsiders at 4.39, Rochedale are clear favourites at 1.56, with the draw 4.3, which seems incredibly short for a cup fixture that could go either way.
Caboolture's home ground, Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex, will be buzzing on Saturday as the hosts come into this clash on the back of their best form in 2026, having gone W/W/W/L/L over their last five.
Rochedale Rovers, by contrast, have had a mixed last few matches, with a W/L/W/L/D run.
Caboolture have more attacking players
Paul Arnison's time in the English Football League has definitely helped the players at Caboolture develop as disciplined, possession-based footballers who are organised and adaptable. While the team's style is possession-based and they prefer to play wide, Arnison has made Caboolture a physical side that plays an end-to-end game. Michael Holden is the team's top scorer, but there are other players that can chip in.
Rochedale, on the other hand, have a more direct style as Scott MacNicol has built his team around a 4-3-3, with plenty of verticality and pressing. The players are youthful and come from the club's academy, but they are not yet consistent enough for a NPL side.
The visitors are a fast-paced team, pressing and trying to win the ball high up the pitch, then attack at speed on the counter-attack. In Obren Kljajić, they have a real threat, but the other players, while talented, have not scored enough goals to carry the game for Rochedale in the cup.
Close game likely
Caboolture's goalie, Bon Scott, has been a real find for Arnison as he commands the penalty box, brings height to the side and is a good organiser on the pitch. Rochedale's Joshua Moreland, Oliver Dearn and Uryu Nagata are the creative midfielders, but the Roos do not have a lot of scoring depth. As a cross-division cup tie, anything can happen in Queensland, where cup runs are often created by upset wins. Rochedale are favourites to win, but their record this season has shown they have a fragile defence, especially away from home, conceding multiple goals in several league matches. Caboolture will be up for this match and have been scoring plenty of goals recently. The weather is set to be mild, sunny and comfortable for this game, which should be a good game for the neutrals with plenty of end-to-end action likely. Both teams to score - Yes is the clear selection here, priced 1.31, as both sides are more effective in attack than defence.