- Chivas are coming off a winless streak in their last 2 home clashes with Toluca, so the hosts aren't much favoured to win.
- However, Chivas are scoring 10 goals in their last 5 home matches, so they have the edge in attack here.
- Toluca are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded per away game this season in all competitions.
Another close game in Guadalajara
CD Chivas de Guadalajara come into this as slight favourites, but the draw is still well-priced as we write this preview and Toluca are certainly good enough to grab something from this fixture. The 3.07 on the visitors appeals more than 2.19 on the hosts at Guadalajara Stadium, Mexico, although we're going to take the home win or draw double chance as our primary selection for Sunday's Liga MX 2026-2027 clash.
Gabriel Milito has done a decent job since coming in on 26 May 2025 and he is starting to shape a side around Chivas' 4-3-3 that patiently builds up the play, circulates possession and turns the screw with some late runs from the fullbacks.
His side are scoring plenty of goals and getting plenty of chances at home, but have failed to win either of their last 2 clashes here against Toluca, so we're not going all in on the home side for this one. In all current competitions, Chivas have gone 3-4-3 across their last 10 matches, which isn't a great run, but it is steady.
Deportivo Toluca FC have been in mixed form too with 2 wins and 3 defeats from their last 5, but Antonio Mohamed has them set up to play with a bit more verticality and sharpness in the press. His side like to counterattack and turn turnovers into quick strikes on goal, which could rattle Chivas if they are forced into playing too quickly on the ball.
Santiago Sandoval has been in form for Chivas
Since 16 December 2024, Mohamed has been at the helm of Toluca and his influence has been felt as they play a flexible 4-2-3-1 system, but are open enough to get caught out. Toluca have had some crazy matches in their recent schedule with a 0-0 home draw with Tigres that they won 6-5 on penalties in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, and a 2-0 away defeat to Pachuca, so just a single point swing from those two games. The last head-to-head fixture finished 2-0 to Toluca in Liga MX 2025/2026 and they have won 3 of the last 5, but Chivas have scored 10 goals in their last 5 at Estadio Akron and this should be a lively game. Toluca are 4-1-5 across their last 10 in all comps, so they are volatile and they can win this one, but our fancy is for Chivas to nick it because their forward, Santiago Sandoval, has been on fire with 3 goals in his last 5 games. In the end, both teams to score - yes at 1.57 looks a solid alternative bet to the odds-on Over 2.5, which is also tempting at 1.72.
