- Dandenong Thunder U23 have won one of their last five NPL Victoria U23 matches, lost three and drawn one.
- Hume City U23 have lost three of their last five U23 matches, conceding 13 times during that run.
- Hume City U23 are unbeaten in the last five NPL Victoria U23 head-to-head meetings, winning two and drawing three.
Sides in the bottom half
This is a six-pointer at the bottom end of the NPL Victoria U23 table, where Dandenong Thunder U23 sit around 13th on 13 points from 17 games and Hume City U23 are around 14th on nine points from 16. The two sides are in poor form overall, and this match is likely to be tight and scrappy, but the odds and recent head-to-head record have the visitors edging out a result.
Adam Piddick's side are a 4-4-2 team that stay compact in a two-bank block and prefer to counter-attack, where they can be a danger on their day. The Thunder U23 came back to life after a dismal run with a 4-3 home win over Caroline Springs George Cross U23, while they have leaked 4 at Avondale, 4 at Heidelberg United and 2 at Melbourne City II in their recent U23 fixtures.
Hassan Jalloh and Joe Nyahwema can give Dandenong some direct running and finishing on the break, while Jackson Courtney-Perkins is the creative spark that gets things moving. He has scored and assisted, so he looks a livewire bet in the anytime goalscorer market.
Hume can nick it
Nick Hegarty's side are a 4-2-3-1 side that play a more structure-first approach, controlling the middle of the park with their double pivot and No.10. They have conceded 6 against South Melbourne U23, 3 against Green Gully U23 and 3 against Bentleigh Greens U23 in the league this season, while they nicked a 3-1 away win at Altona Magic U23 recently.
Rob Harker is a key outlet, while Lloyd Isgrove adds some crafty attacking quality and set-piece expertise to this team. He can find the killer ball in tight games such as this, so we're siding with Hume City U23 to avoid defeat.
The odds reflect this, but at 2.35, Hume City U23 are the favourites ahead of Dandenong Thunder U23 at 2.23 and the draw at 4.2. The Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets are around 1.2 and 1.22 at the time of writing, which is right, given how each side has leaked goals this term. But given how the two set up, we're going with a narrow away win or a 1-1 grind.
