- Alaves have won 3 of their last 5 matches, drawing 1 and losing 1 (W3 D1 L1).
- Getafe have won 2 of their last 3 visits to Alaves, winning 2-0 away in LaLiga 2025/2026 and drawing 1 of the other 2 meetings.
Alaves are on a roll
Alaves enter this match as the narrow favourites at 2.32, against 3.5 for Getafe and 2.82 for the draw, which suggests that the market leans toward the home side, but also that the game will be a grind. Alaves are certainly the team in the better form with 3 straight wins having seen them home 3-0 against Castellon and grab a 1-1 away draw with Racing Santander before winning on penalties last time out. Alaves are one of the better organised defensive units in LaLiga with a variety of shapes that Quique Sanchez Flores uses to keep the opposition guessing - from a compact 5-3-2 to more attack-oriented 4-4-2s or 4-2-3-1s. Getafe's last 3 results have seen them lose 4-1 away to Atletico Madrid, lose 1-0 away to AS Monaco and hold Tottenham to a 0-0 draw away from home. They will arrive for this one battle-hardened but blunt in the attacking third.
Getafe’s away goals are a worry
Getafe's record away from home in all competitions is 1 win, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 7 games and they average just 0.43 goals away from home, netting just 3 times on their travels, which is a big worry for this matchup.
Jose Bordalas' team are a press-and-counter side, as opposed to Alaves, who are more about organised defending and quick vertical transitions when they win the ball. They do not have the same potency in attack, but they are a team that can sit deep and be difficult to break down when they need to be, which they proved away to Tottenham. But they also need to get their away goal output up if they are going to win on the road and challenge for promotion.
Under 2.5 looks the smartest play
The head-to-head suggests that Getafe can pull a surprise in this one as they beat Alaves 2-0 away in 2025/2026 and have won 1 of the last 2 meetings, drawing the other (W1 D1). Getafe will have Alaves' number, but their form is patchier (W1 D2 L2 from last 5) and they have only won 4 of their last 10 in all competitions (W4 D3 L3), whereas Alaves have won 6 of their last 10 (W6 D2 L2), so the momentum is with the home team.
A close tactical game seems assured here as Bordalas' 4-4-2 will be as compact as Alaves', but with more chaos and pressure. Alaves will win the second balls and break with the numbers, so a 1-0 or 2-0 sort of outcome seems to best fit this market. Under 2.5 goals at 1.38 and Both Teams to Score - No at 1.55 look to be the best plays.
Mariano Diaz has been Alaves' main goal threat of late with 2 in the last 5 matches, nearly half their total goal haul across those 5 matches. Alaves have scored 5 times in their last 5 games, so that gives them a little bit of an edge in the final third.
