- Barcelona have won the last four head-to-head meetings in all competitions, winning the away leg of this UEFA Women’s Champions League quarter-final 6-2
- Barcelona have won their last five games in all competitions, scoring 17 goals in the process
- Real Madrid (W) have improved domestically and sit second in Liga F, but have been thrashed by Barca this season
Back Barca to breeze into semis
Barcelona (W) are overwhelming favourites with the bookmakers at 1.12 to see off Real Madrid (W) and book their spot in the UEFA Champions League Women 2025-2026 semi-finals, which is about right given their dominance in the first leg.
Pere Romeu’s side have an almost perfect record in Liga F this season with 22 wins and only one defeat, 10 points clear of second-placed Real Madrid. Their signature style of possession-based football, allied to the most intense high-press in the world, has seen them dominate domestically and in Europe this term.
The first-leg result in this quarter-final was no surprise to those who follow the women’s game and Barca will again be looking to control the flow of the game in what should be another comfortable win on Thursday. But Real Madrid (W) will offer more of a threat than the 6 - 2 aggregate score suggests as they are a well-organised unit that know their roles.
Madrid can make a mark at Camp Nou
Pau Quesada has brought a fresh perspective to the role of Madrid manager and has Real playing a much more compact and disciplined style, either in a 4-2-3-1 formation or a narrow 4-4-2. They sit deep and look to counter-attack in numbers with Linda Caicedo, who scored both goals in the first-leg defeat, posing a constant threat on the break with her pace and trickery.
Goalkeeper Misa Rodríguez has been in fine form too, keeping Real in games with a series of saves when their back four have been overwhelmed. However, there is a yawning gulf in class when the top European teams come to town and Quesada, who has made good progress since taking charge, has yet to make a dent on it.
Pajor and Putellas to rule the roost
Ewa Pajor looks lethal for Barca at the moment and will be a good investment in the anytime goalscorer market this week after notching a brace in the away first leg and emerging as one of the season’s top scorers.
Alexia Putellas, meanwhile, is the master orchestrator in midfield and will provide a constant danger from set pieces, having chipped in with a penalty in the Bernabeu. Vicky López and Esmee Brugts are also capable of making an impact, as they did in Madrid when both got on the scoresheet to demonstrate Barca’s strength in depth in the attacking third.
The visitors will make a game of this and may even get on the scoresheet at some point in the game, but Barca will control the large share of possession and create enough to win comfortably on the night. The ‘Both teams to score - No’ market looks attractive at 1.8 in the circumstances as Madrid will struggle to get through Barca’s defensive press while it will be almost impossible for them to keep Barca at bay at the other end.
The weather forecast for Thursday’s game suggests a mild, sunny day with gusty winds and there will no doubt be a healthy crowd to make it feel like a big occasion in Camp Nou. It will be a big night for women’s football in Spain, which continues to boom, but there can only be one winner.
