- Dynamo Kiev have won seven of their last ten games across all competitions (D2, L1).
- PAOK Thessaloniki are on a more patchy run of two wins, four draws and four defeats across their last ten.
Dynamo have the edge in a game where both will score
FC Dynamo Kiev arrive in better shape than FC PAOK Thessaloniki for Thursday's UEFA Europa League qualification 2026 clash at Arena Lublin, Poland, but PAOK have the aggressive press setup to keep this tie alive.
Ihor Kostiuk's side are unbeaten in five coming into this (W4, D1) and have carried the momentum from that run into UEFA Europa League qualifying. They play a modern, high-intensity model with players that can progress the ball vertically and a structure that is compact and zonal.
Alessio Lisci's PAOK play an aggressive pressing game, which is designed to get the ball back quickly, while they can hurt teams on the break with their pace and penetration into wide areas. On paper, both sides should have good moments to score and the under 2.5 goals line, at 1.7, suggests a fairly cagey battle.
Kiev's clean numbers give them the edge
Both teams to score at 1.83 looks a strong bet given that neither defence is totally solid and both sides have goal power. Dynamo average 2.30 scored and 1.30 allowed across their last ten matches, which is a pretty good ratio for a club of their standing.
PAOK have averaged 1.60 scored and 1.60 against across their most recent ten, so it's clear this tie should be very close in Arena Lublin. Dynamo are the slight pick with 2.55 as opposed to 2.7 for PAOK and 3.15 for the draw.
Dynamo's momentum and a slightly better set of numbers across recent matches has them in with a better chance of progressing, but PAOK's setup will keep this very live. The Kiev team's more controlled vertical build-up should test PAOK's pressing scheme while the Greek side's pace in transition should pick off any sloppy moments from Dynamo.
