- Northcote City are undefeated at home in NPL Victoria 2 (W3, D1).
- Melbourne Victory U21 have won just once in five away games in NPL Victoria 2 (L4).
- Northcote City have conceded just 0.5 goals per home game on average in NPL Victoria 2.
Northcote City are in a different league
Northcote City head into Friday’s game as the clear favourites to beat Melbourne Victory U21 at 1.61, as they sit top of the NPL Victoria 2 table with 23 points from 10 games so far, while their visitors occupy 8th spot with 14 points.
Northcote have drawn their last two matches, with a goalless home draw with Port Melbourne Sharks SC in their last outing, however, they are undefeated at home in NPL Victoria 2, winning three and drawing one of their four fixtures so far.
Victory U21 have split their last two away games, thumping North Sunshine Eagles SC 4-1 in a dominant display before falling to a 2-1 defeat at Melbourne Srbija last time out.
The visitors average 1.8 goals per game on the road, so they can certainly play their part in what should be an open fixture, but their defensive frailties on the road have cost them on several occasions already.
Styles clash in NPL Victoria 2
This is a real clash of styles as Northcote are a very pragmatic unit who set up with a back four and a double pivot in front, while their Victory U21 visitors play a high-tempo academy style, with lots of possession and pressing in waves.
Northcote are a solid defensive unit who rarely get caught out, but they can be a threat from set-piece situations and are pretty direct in transition, while Victory are a young, flowing team who can move the ball and press with plenty of energy.
It would be easy to think that this could be an end-to-end game and the odds for Over 2.5 goals at 1.31 back that up, but I think Northcote’s grit and clinical nature will see them outlast Victory’s youthful exuberance for a home victory.
