- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last five competitive matches across the Premier League and Europa League
- Aston Villa have won three of their last five (W3, D1, L1) but lost 1-0 at Fulham
- Villa have a superior recent head-to-head record, winning 3-1 in a Premier League home game in January 2026, but Forest took a point from the last clash at the City Ground (1-1)
Tricky tactical tussle anticipated
The hosts are in great form, being unbeaten in their last five competitive matches in the league and Europe to establish themselves as a serious force under Vítor Pereira. The Portuguese coach has instilled structure, a pressing intensity and a clinical edge to his side’s set-pieces that has seen immediate results in the standings.
Forest have pulled clear of the Premier League relegation fight and are mid-table with 39 points after a five-game unbeaten run of results that has featured a 5-0 away win at Sunderland and a 1-0 victory over Porto to secure a first European semi-final in 42 years. This is a historic occasion for the Reds and City Ground will be bubbling with emotion on Thursday.
Villa will have a different game plan
Villa, who sit in the Premier League top four on around 58 points, have been in a different stratosphere during 2025-26 as they have chased European glory and a top-four berth in the Premier League. Unai Emery’s tactical flexibility and European pedigree has been key to their impressive run in the Europa League and their style of play has been easy to define.
The Villans press high and force the opposition to play the ball out from the back, but they also play a high line in possession and build up play from the rear with their wing-backs, number 10 and false nine. The visitors are strong down the middle, wide channels and have pace to get in behind, so this match should be a fascinating tactical chess match with Forest trying to keep it tight and hit Villa on the counter.
The Villans have superior quality in most areas of the field, but Forest have some great athletes and a fresh energy at the moment. Chris Wood and Igor Jesus have scored in recent routs, including the 5-0 win at Sunderland, while Morgan Gibbs-White is the creative heartbeat of the team. He was instrumental in the Porto tie and recent league fixtures.
Emery’s experience and Villa’s squad depth could decide first-leg tussle
Villa are 3.0 favourites to win this game and Forest are 2.57 to take the spoils while the draw is around 3.41. But the home form of Forest and their defensive solidity should be enough to keep this match very close and a draw looks the most likely outcome in the first leg of this all-English semi-final.
Morgan Gibbs-White is another Forest player who has shown up in big games, while Elliot Anderson brings late-game energy and a goal threat as he did against Sunderland. Ollie Watkins will lead the Villa line, having just hit his 100th goal for the club, so he’s a threat at all times.
Villa will be looking to get an early lead, but Forest have become adept at keeping the ball out of their net and should be able to stay in the game. Villa’s experience in Europe and greater squad depth should see them through, but this clash of styles could produce a draw with a few goals in it, so both teams to score at 1.72 looks good in this spot.
