- Porto are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions, with three draws and two wins, and top the Primeira Liga with 73 points from 28 games
- Forest are unbeaten in their last five competitive games, including a 1-1 draw at Porto in the first leg of this Europa League quarter-final
- Forest beat Porto 2-0 in October 2025 when they met in the group stage at The City Ground
City Ground can host a classic European chess match
The City Ground is the place to be on Thursday when Forest host FC Porto in the second-leg of this Europa League 2025-2026 quarter-final with the teams level at 1-1 on aggregate after the Dragons’ draw in the Dragao. Vítor Pereira’s side will have a psychological edge for that 2-0 home win over Farioli’s team last October, but this is sure to be another close game.
The bookies have this one at 2.22 for Forest, 3.35 for Porto and 3.15 for the draw, which seems about right given how even the game was last week. But our selection has to be for the hosts to progress, by the tightest of margins, and take one step closer to their European fairy tale while putting Porto's double dream in jeopardy.
Farioli’s team are solid, disciplined and ruthless in their approach to European games and have shown they can dig deep to grind out results when necessary. Pereira appears to have instilled a pragmatic but flexible system to suit his squad and a congested schedule with Forest’s domestic form improving of late.
Forest’s flexibility makes them tough to play against
Forest beat Tottenham 3-0 at Tottenham, drew 2-2 at Manchester City and held Fulham to a 0-0 draw in their last three competitive matches. They have been in a relegation dogfight in the Premier League, but have been able to put that to one side in Europe where they advanced through knockout rounds to reach this stage.
Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White has been their creative hub, contributing goals and assists, but Igor Jesus has been the man to get the goals when they really count and is a key goal threat, especially in knockout ties. Porto’s Samuel Omorodion ‘Samu’ Aghehowa leads the line for them with a double-digit goal tally in the Primeira Liga, but Gabriel Veiga and Pepê are the creative forces behind him.
Porto are the leaders in the Portuguese domestic game and their defensive record is among the best in Portugal this season. Diogo Costa is the anchor of a back four which has kept multiple clean sheets to support their patient, possession-based system. Francesco Farioli has added an aggressive, pressing style to their game with some positional overloads to create spaces and they play a 4-3-3 system which allows them to play a fast-paced game.
Forest’s solidity can see them through
However, we are taking Forest to beat them because Pereira’s tactical flexibility is greater and they are better equipped to ride out pressure, look to stifle the game and strike on the break or from set pieces. The two central defenders, Nikola Milenković and Murillo, have made Forest a tough team to break down and they have kept clean sheets in key knockout fixtures prior to Porto.
Under 2.5 goals is a tempting 1.65 for what should be a cagey second-leg, but we’re going for a narrow home win that takes it to extra time because the aggregate score is level at 1 - 1 and Forest have the home advantage. The atmosphere at the ground could be electric for this clash and if the visitors are going to get anything from it, it is more likely to be a 1 - 1 rather than a 0-0.
