- Real Madrid have won their last four two-legged Champions League knockouts against Bayern Munich, including the 2023/24 semi-finals
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last nine matches against Bayern Munich (Won 7, Drawn 2) across all competitions.
Heavyweight clash at Bernabeu
UEFA’s most-played fixture in club history, Real Madrid versus FC Bayern Munich, is back in the Champions League quarter-finals in 2025-2026, a chapter in a long-running rivalry featuring two of the game’s most famous and successful clubs.
Real Madrid have the edge in the overall head-to-head record with 13 wins to Bayern’s 11 from 28 matches played, and Real have had the better of recent meetings, going unbeaten in the last nine (W7 D2) and winning the last four two-legged UCL ties.
Bayern went down 4-3 on aggregate to Real Madrid in the 2023/24 semi-finals, a result which continued the Spanish giant’s superb record in two-legged knockouts.
Real Madrid are second to Barcelona in LaLiga, but they have won four straight Champions League knockout ties to get to the quarter-finals, including back-to-back wins over Manchester City. Their star quality was key to their progress, but the performance of Federico Valverde has been equally as important, providing energy, late runs and a hat-trick in the first leg of the last round against Man City.
Kompany’s Bayern are on fire
Vinícius Júnior has been the Real Madrid player to deliver in the big games, netting a brace against Atlético Madrid and scoring in the Champions League knockout stages. The Brazilian will be a threat on Tuesday, while Kylian Mbappé is ever-present and always a threat when fit.
Bayern Munich, meanwhile, are on a sensational run of form, demolishing Atalanta 10-2 on aggregate in the UCL round of 16 and thrashing Union Berlin 4-0 at the weekend. Harry Kane scored a brace in a 6-1 win at Atalanta to take his Champions League tally to 50 and he could be back from injury for this showdown, while Serge Gnabry and Michael Olise provide quality and directness in width.
Both sides have firepower and make defensive errors so ‘Both teams to score - Yes’ is the best way to approach this game at 1.42, but Bayern’s 6-1 hammering of Atalanta in the last round suggests they are in better form. Kompany’s pressing game is relentless and the Bavarians can be irresistible when they get it right.
Home comforts should be decisive
Álvaro Arbeloa’s Madrid are much more pragmatic, prioritising compactness and structure with selective pressing, but their quality in transition should not be underestimated. Joshua Kimmich is the fulcrum of Bayern’s play, dictating the tempo and his side’s transitions from defence to attack.
The Bernabéu could be a deciding factor in this clash, with Real’s long record of knockout successes meaning Los Blancos should get the job done at home, but Kompany’s aggression and Bayern’s depth and scoring form make the visitors a danger. The odds suggest a tight contest with Bayern coming in at 2.14, compared to 2.82 for Real Madrid and 4.0 for the draw. Harry Kane’s involvement could be the difference, but Real Madrid without Courtois means this tie remains on a knife edge heading into the second leg in Munich.
