- Moreton City have averaged over 2.6 goals per game in 2026.
- Rochedale Rovers are 9th in the NPL Queensland table, with just 11 points from 13 games, and their main problem has been conceding goals.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of the last three meetings between the sides, with Moreton winning all three since 2024 and outscoring Rochedale 8-2 in the process.
Pace vs possession in Brisbane’s south
Rochedale Rovers and Moreton City Excelsior will meet in the NPL Queensland on Tuesday, with the hosts looking to pull off a huge shock in order to jumpstart their survival battle. The visitors will be looking to maintain their top-four push with a win which would secure their position in the top four.
Scott MacNicol has plenty of experience in club development, leading Rochedale Rovers, but his side have struggled for consistency this season, particularly at the back. Rochedale have been heavily beaten by all of the better sides they've played and still have no answer to the best teams in the division. While they can score goals when on a roll, MacNicol's side have been uncharacteristically leaky at the back all season.
A 2-0 loss to fellow strugglers Peninsula Power has left them with just 11 points from 13 matches, but a 6-0 win over Capalaba and a 4-0 drubbing of Magic United show that their forward players can be lethal when the team hits form. Obren Kljajić is a constant threat and, when their front three are on song, the likes of Jack Collins and Marek Madle can contribute too.
City are flying high
Moreton's style is very different to that of Rochedale, who are far more direct and rely on transitioning from defence to attack in an instant. City are possession-based and like to play a very proactive style of footy, pressing the opposition and trying to overwhelm them with pace and numbers in behind.
Cameron Millar has instilled a modern, attack-first philosophy in his side, leading to them being one of the most prolific in the NPL Queensland 2026 season. City are 3rd in the table, with 25 points from 13, an 8W-1D-4L record and an average of 2.63 goals per-game.
They do have in captain Declan Smith a leader who can marshal the defence and they tend to outscore their opponents on any given day. A 6-0 thrashing of Brisbane Roar II and a 5-0 demolition of Magic United are testament to their firepower, although a 2-0 defeat to Lions FC is an example of how things can go south.
Moreton to outscore visitors
With the visitors in much better form, boasting a much better goal return and a dominance in the head-to-head, Moreton City are clear favourites for the win, but their odds are a little short at 1.44, while Rochedale are 5.27 and the draw 4.6.
The 'over 2.5 goals' market looks great value at 1.27 and that's the selection, as the styles clash between Moreton's possession play and Rochedale's transition approach could lead to a very entertaining game. It will be a test for both sides, but I'm siding with the in-form visitors to win this one.