- Senegal enter the game as clear favorites, priced at 1.31 to take the win.
- Iraq are massive underdogs, priced at 8.25, with a draw priced at 5.1.
- The bookies expect a low-scoring affair, with the odds available for 'Both Teams to Score - No' 1.53 and 'Under 2.5 Goals' 1.99.
Lions looking for first points
Senegal come into this match third in Group I with no points from one game, having lost their opener 3-1 away at France. It was a tough match to navigate and while that result may have been disappointing, it was far from the end of the world.
Iraq are sitting fourth in the group with no points after a 4-1 home defeat to Norway last time out. The visitors have also had a tough start in this tournament, having waited for 40 years since their first and only previous appearance at the World Cup in 1986.
This match is pivotal for both sides and will likely see two very different tactical approaches. Senegal are built around a mobile 4-3-3 system that relies heavily on high pressing, fast transitions, and physical dominance at the back to stifle opponents. However, they need to pick up their first points, so they may play with slightly less freedom than when they drew 0-0 at home to Saudi Arabia in a pre-tournament friendly.
Can Iraq pull an upset?
Graham Arnold took charge of Iraq in May 2025 and has quickly implemented a compact, defense-first tactical philosophy upon his side. They'll look to keep things compact, defending deep in either a 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 system, looking to frustrate the opponent with zonal defending and then hitting them on the counter.
This should be a fascinating tactical matchup between a risk-willing side and a result-driven side. Senegal will look to overwhelm Iraq's defensive lines with the pace and physicality they possess.
Goals aren't likely at Toronto Stadium
The bookies are leaning towards a game where Senegal are clear favorites to win. I disagree with this, as Senegal have much better players and more attacking flair in general. If Sadio Mané gets to play in the number 10 role, he'll be the best player on the pitch, his pace and flair will compliment Senegal's pressing style perfectly and he'll ensure that they always have players ahead of the ball.
Iliman Ndiaye is Senegal's key playmaker and has looked very good so far. He recorded one assist in his last match in Group I and has the ability to open up Iraq's defence with his ability to break through defensive lines.
Iraq's key threat is Ayman Hussein, he's scored their only goal in Group I and two of their last five overall. Amir Al-Ammari is their best player though, and he recorded an assist in their Group I opener and will be the orchestrator of their play from deep in midfield.
Ibrahim Mbaye is Senegal's top scorer in Group I so far, with one goal in one match, so he'll likely be the sharpest attacker in the Senegalese team here. Iraq don't have anyone with a similar threat and so Senegal should have the clinical edge here, so I'm backing them to record a vital Group I win in Toronto.
