- Real Madrid have won three of their last five games, with a recent 6-1 win over Monaco
- SL Benfica have won two and lost three of their last five in all competitions
- Mbappé has scored 11 goals in six Champions League appearances in 2025/2026
Mourinho and Arbeloa renew old rivalry
Two of the most successful football figures of the 21st century renew their old rivalry on Wednesday as Jose Mourinho’s Benfica host Alvaro Arbeloa’s Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League 2025-2026.
Benfica have won one and lost two of their three home games in the 2025-26 Champions League, averaging just 1.33 goals-per-game in Lisbon. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have won two and lost one in three away games in the competition, conceding four goals.
Real are third in the table on 15 points from seven games, while Benfica are 29th with six points from the same number of matches. Los Blancos are the 1.67 favourites to win the matchup, with Benfica 4.45 outsiders.
Los Blancos can edge out the home side
Mourinho has overseen a pragmatic, counter-attacking approach to the game since taking over at the Luz in September 2025, while Arbeloa has brought his high-pressing philosophy to Madrid, with Los Blancos’ fluid style of play and ability to play vertically a threat to Benfica’s rigid shape.
Benfica’s success against the drop in the 2025/26 Champions League has been due in large part to their ability to stay compact in a mid-block and then spring forward when they can. Mourinho’s side aren’t prolific attackers but are a big threat on set pieces and their counter-attacks can be lethal, especially if they can get Leandro Barreiro to break forward from midfield.
Barreiro is Benfica’s top scorer in the Champions League, with two goals in six appearances, but Georgiy Sudakov has provided the spark in midfield, with two assists in the same seven fixtures.
Real Madrid’s front line is an even bigger goal threat, while Vangelis Pavlidis is in red-hot form of late. The Greek striker has scored six goals in his last five matches for Benfica and they’ll need him to be at his best if they are to compete with the high-powered Los Blancos attack.
Mbappe is the danger man in Madrid’s ranks with 11 goals in just six games. The French striker has also found the net three times in Los Blancos’ last five fixtures. With both sides likely to be positive, over 2.5 goals is a heavy favourite at 1.5 and this has the feel of a match where goals will be on the agenda.
Los Blancos should win this match but with Mourinho in charge of Benfica, it won’t be easy. There will be little space to play, so Real will have to work hard for their success. Los Blancos’ dynamic style and high-intensity pressing could force Benfica into errors in transition, where Madrid will strike. This will be a chess match, with transition moments likely to decide it.
