- Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (W2, D3), but have yet to win at home in the USA (1 draw).
- Saudi Arabia are unbeaten in their last 3 (W1, D2).
- Both teams have 1 point from their opening FIFA World Cup Group H fixtures, with Spain in 3rd and Saudi Arabia in 2nd place (on goal difference).
Spanish dominance to be nullified
With both Spain and Saudi Arabia on one point from their opening fixtures in Group H, this Sunday's crucial meeting at the Atlanta Stadium will have them either solidifying themselves or the group or falling into the abyss.
The draw which has Spain in 3rd place and Saudi Arabia in 2nd on goal difference, was the expected result from both teams' respective openings. Spain have yet to taste victory on American soil, drawing their opening group match against Cape Verde 0-0 at home before securing a 3-1 win away to Peru. Saudi Arabia have drawn their most recent two matches, following up a 0-0 draw away to Senegal with a 1-1 stalemate at home to Uruguay.
Luis de la Fuente has added more physicality to Spain's 4-3-3 system, ensuring a high intensity pressing style to limit the opposition's chances. The full-backs provide width in attack, allowing the attack to overload areas and create chances. While this style of play has been effective, Spain have looked unconvincing and could have easily lost to either Cape Verde or Peru.
Saudi Arabia have a plan
Saudi Arabia's 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 formation is a simple system, and one which has suited new manager Georgios Donis well since his appointment in April. Saudi Arabia have kept it tight at the back, not giving much away and looking to punish the opposition with quick vertical counter-attacks.
Donis' Saudi Arabia are not a possession-based side and they will not be looking to get into a long, drawn out chess match with Spain. They will sit back, keep it tight and look to attack at pace, in what should be a cagey contest.
The Under 2.5 goals bet has been a winner in Spain's opening Group H match, and with Saudi Arabia having drawn their previous two and Spain's only home match to date finishing 0-0, I'm going for another low-scoring affair this Sunday.
Cagey contest to remain low-scoring
With both sides looking strong defensively, and the odds for BTTS-No at 1.37 and Under 2.5 at 2.56, I'm expecting another cagey encounter in Atlanta on Sunday. Spain will dominate possession, but are likely to be frustrated by Saudi Arabia's compact lines. One moment of magic or a defensive lapse could win this match, so I'm taking Spain to edge it and secure the win.
Spain to win and Under 2.5 goals will be the main selection for this game, with Spain to draw a blank being the main alternative.
