- Ukraine U19 have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five games in all competitions, arriving on a two-game winning streak.
- Italy U19 have won three and drawn two of their last five in all competitions.
- Ukraine U19 (3.62) and the draw (3.62) are slightly underdog to Italy U19 (2.07) for the clash.
Pivotal clash to decide Group B
Ukraine U19 are top of UEFA EURO U19 Group B 2026 with six points from two games and Italy U19 sit in second on four, so the Group B summit is at stake when these nations meet in the final group game on Sunday.
Italy have been given the edge by the bookmakers at 2.07, but Ukraine have the home edge in the group and the hotter form of the two teams heading into the game makes this clash a decent candidate for the upset or draw.
A Ukraine win looks good value at 3.62 and Italy could be too short, although we will go with the 'unders' here for a safer route to a good return from this intriguing encounter.
Ukraine can dominate the ball
The Italians are the bookmakers' favourites because they have the better overall record and a little more quality in the squad, but Ukraine arrive on a two-game winning streak, including a 1-3 success over Croatia U19 and a 1-2 victory against Serbia U19 in Group B that has them sitting at the top.
Both are well-disciplined outfits with very different characteristics, with Ukraine opting for a possession-first approach to dominate the field, control the midfield and create attacks from wide areas and mobile forwards.
Italy, on the other hand, are a well-drilled 4-3-3 side that are compact, tidy on the ball and more capable of playing off the counter-attack than applying relentless pressure. Their 2-0 home win over Serbia was a solid success and the 0-0 away draw to Croatia was enough to keep them in the chase, but not ideal in terms of the goals they need to keep scoring to secure a semi-final berth and a chance of wider U20 World Cup qualification.
Dodgy data point to another tense game
The teams met in Group A of EURO U19 in 2024 when Ukraine U19 were 3-2 winners, so there is every reason to suspect that this will be another tense clash.
Italy are unbeaten in five (W3, D2) and Ukraine in their last five (W3, D1, L1), so the under dog market and the stats all point to a cagey contest on Sunday. Ukraine have scored five goals in their last five and winger Vitaliy Hlyut has two of them - making him one of the sharpest finishers in the side.
Both teams to score is close in the odds at around 21/20, but Italy's inability to score away (0-0 vs Croatia) and the overall lack of goals in the game for the under 19s has us taking the under 2.5 line at 1.88.
