- Atalanta Bergamo are unbeaten at home in the UEFA Champions League 2025-2026, with two wins and a draw from three games.
- Athletic Bilbao have not won away from home in the UEFA Champions League 2025-2026, with one draw and two defeats from three.
- Atalanta Bergamo have conceded an average of 0.67 goals and scored an average of 1.33 at home in this UEFA Champions League campaign.
Tactical clash of attacking philosophies on Wednesday
This Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash should pit a highly structured and disciplined Athletic Bilbao side against a more freewheeling, adventurous Atalanta, with the hosts looking to maintain the impressive start they’ve made to this competition.
Atalanta have won three, drawn one and lost just one of their last five games in all competitions, which includes a 2-0 home win over Torino, a 2-0 away win at Bologna and a 1-1 away draw at Pisa.
5th-placed Atalanta have collected 13 points from six games in this group, while Athletic Bilbao are 28th and have just five points to their name from the same number of games.
Atalanta on fire at home
Athletic Bilbao’s form has been more inconsistent of late, with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings. After a dramatic 4-3 away win over Cultural Leonesa in the Copa del Rey, they were brought back down to Earth with a 3-2 defeat to Real Mallorca in LaLiga away from home.
Raffaele Palladino’s side have looked strong at home, however, where they have won two and lost just once of their last three fixtures.
Palladino, who has done a brilliant job at Atalanta since coming in as head coach in November 2025, has blended Gian Piero Gasperini’s attacking DNA with some of his own tactical ideas to make Atalanta the most thrilling team to watch in Europe once more.
Tactical discipline a key factor
Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, have struggled away from home, winning just one of their last four away from the San Mames, along with a draw and two defeats. Ernesto Valverde has been in charge since July 2022, but his disciplined tactical approach has kept the Basque giants in the mix when results have not necessarily followed.
Valverde prefers his side to play in a compact 4-2-3-1 formation, building from the back patiently, maintaining structure on the flanks and playing vertical football when the wide runners get the ball in behind. Mikel Jauregizar has been Bilbao’s creative spark, notching up two assists in six UEFA Champions League appearances this term.
Atalanta, however, are a more aggressive and dynamic team, with their back three system allowing their two wing-backs to bomb forward in search of numerical overloads and spaces to break through. The likes of Nikola Krstovic, who has scored three of Atalanta’s last six goals in the past five games, are the beneficiaries.
Goals at both ends likely
Palladino’s men are the favourites for this clash at 9/10, while Bilbao are 31/10 outsiders, which makes little sense to us given the quality of the two sides and the disparity in their respective home and away records.
A goal at both ends seems almost guaranteed, however, with the ‘Both Teams To Score’ market currently at 4/5, given the attacking nature of both sides and the likelihood that Atalanta’s wing-backs will stretch Bilbao’s defensive discipline to the limits on Wednesday evening.
Charles De Ketelaere is the best bet to score any time for Atalanta, with two goals in five UEFA Champions League games this season, while Athletic Bilbao should look to Gorka Guruzeta, who has three goals in the competition this term, to be their main threat in the final third.
