- Mexico have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- South Africa have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 games in all competitions.
Bafana Bafana’s Brazil-like build-up
Mexico are heavy favourites at 11/25 ahead of this Group A fixture against South Africa, with the visitors 39/5 long shots and the draw 71/20. The odds on the hosts are definitely on the short side for a side, while it's hard to see South Africa having enough quality to seriously challenge Mexico.
But there is something of a buzz about the fixture, which is a repeat of the opening fixture between these two nations at the 2010 World Cup. This summer's edition will also serve as a showcase for the talent of Liga MX and a handful of South African players looking to make the grade in Europe, so there may be plenty of scouts in the stands to keep an eye on both sides.
Javier Aguirre has done a superb job since taking over as Mexico coach in July 2024, instilling defensive discipline and clarity of purpose in his new charges. Mexico will set up in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, which allows them to stay compact, progress the ball down the wings in a structured way and press with discipline to dictate the tempo. They have won three games in a row, beating Ghana (2-0) and Australia (1-0) at home and then thumping Serbia (5-1).
Bafana Bafana lack attacking quality
Hugo Broos has a completely different approach to his squad, having taken over in May 2021. He has developed a flexible 4-2-3-1 system that is highly physical and allows his side to play direct, be dangerous from set-pieces and create havoc when pressing opponents. South Africa have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, which is not quite good enough to come here and give the Mexicans a real test.
Johan Vasquez has scored two of Mexico's last six goals, while Oswin Appollis has two of the same in South Africa, so the pair are both dangerous and could be worth a flutter in the anytime goalscorer markets. Mexico average 1.75 goals per game scored and just 0.50 conceded per game in home games, while South Africa average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per away game.
Mexico to win without too much of a drama
Mexico have won 4, drawn 3 and lost just 1 of their last 8 at home, while South Africa's away record is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss. They were beaten 1-2 at home by Panama in November and then were held to a 0-0 draw by Nicaragua in February in the Friendly International Matches 2026.
Backing the home side to win is the only way to go here given the form book, home advantage and the odds on offer. Mexico have a better team and should win the game with a bit in hand, but South Africa will come and make a contest of it. The 'Both teams to score - No' market at 13/25 looks a good bet here given Mexico's strong defensive record.
