- Japan have won all 5 of their last matches (W7, D2, L1 in last 10 in all competitions). Netherlands have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games. Japan are pressing and playing on the break to perfection at the moment, and have kept clean sheets in all three of their previous fixtures, conceding just once in their last four away internationals.
Japan are red-hot favourites to topple the Dutch
Japan are flying into the World Cup after a run of 5 straight wins and they will be looking to cause a massive upset in Group F against an improving Dutch side when the two sides meet at Dallas Stadium on Sunday.
Japan are a tough watch for any team at their best, which is how Hajime Moriyasu has had them playing for the majority of his tenure in charge since July 2018.
His team play with relentless intensity, especially when pressing high up the pitch, and their ability to play in transition is as good as any side in the world right now.
Their players are quick, they are a handful in possession and they can be lethal when countering. Takefusa Kubo, the Real Sociedad winger, adds pace, creativity and trickery to the play on the wings and in behind the opposition lines, while Takumi Minamino is a constant threat to break the lines and make runs off the ball.
Koomans' Dutch have a very different game plan
Ronald Koeman's Dutch have a completely different, but equally effective game plan. Since taking over in January 2023, the Oranje have been a possession-based side that tries to overload the wide areas and dictate the tempo.
Virgil van Dijk is the undisputed leader and the backbone of their defence, providing aerial dominance and experience in high-stakes games, while Frenkie de Jong is the main orchestrator of the play in midfield.
He is the sort of player that can dictate tempo and time of play while making the right pass in tight spots, which will be crucial against Japan's pressing game.
It should be a fascinating contest of styles at the Dallas Stadium with Netherlands having averaged 2.00 goals per game at home recently, but Koeman will know that he has to get his players to replicate that output at an unfamiliar venue and away from their comfort zone.
Japanese can spring a shock
Japan's system is a versatile 3-4-2-1 that is open to change, but always involves a high-pressing game where Wataru Endo provides the steel in midfield and breaks up the opposition's play with his positioning and distribution.
Moriyasu's men have won 7, drawn 2 and lost just 1 of their last 10 in all competitions, so they will go into this game with plenty of momentum and belief that they can get something from the Oranje.
Netherlands have won six, drawn three and lost just once in their last 10, so they have been very resilient recently, but I think Japan will get a result and cause an upset.
The draw is the most likely result here and, although I think both teams will score, it looks like a low-scoring affair based on the available odds.
The odds of 259/100 for a draw are far too big given what we know about these two teams and the way they play, so I'm going to grab some value on that selection while it's available.
Cody Gakpo has scored three of the last eight goals scored by the Dutch and looks a good bet to strike against Japan on Sunday, while an under 2.5 goals bet at 22/25 is also taken due to the Japanese having kept clean sheets in their previous three internationals and only conceding once in their last four on the road.
