- Blackpool are winless in their last 4 away (all-competitions), losing all 4 and conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game.
- Hornchurch have won 3 of their last 4 at home (all-competitions), and conceded just 3 goals in those 4 games.
- The average price for over 2.5 goals is 11/20.
Hornchurch can make a game of it
There is usually a clear difference between the average bet365 National League club and the Championship club in these sort of games, but Ian Evatt's Blackpool have done little on the road so far to suggest they can win away from Bloomfield Road.
The Seasiders have gone 4 games without a win on the bounce on the away (all-competitions), and they have lost all 4, conceding an average of 2.25 goals a game in those contests. At 39/50, Blackpool are the clear favourites in this game, but that price doesn't look too secure when you consider their away form.
Hornchurch are a low-possession team who are set up to play direct and play on the counterattack by boss Daryl McMahon, their 4-2-3-1 system allows them to be compact and they're usually geared up to win the second ball and get forward in transitions.
The Urchins have won 3 of their last 4 at home and have conceded just 3 times in those 4 fixtures, so they will be confident that they can make a real game of this on Saturday.
Evatt will try to keep it simple
Blackpool boss Ian Evatt likes to play from a back-three platform, using wing-backs and keeping a structure throughout the game. His team will look to control the ball and keep the tempo in this fixture, whilst Hornchurch will try to break at speed and frustrate the visitors.
The hosts have lost their last 3 games, going down to Hartlepool United, Yeovil Town and AFC Fylde, but they have won 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 in all competitions.
This is a rare First Round FA Cup appearance for Hornchurch, and the Urchins are sure to be up for this one. Blackpool have won 2 of their last 3, beating Milton Keynes Dons and Aston Villa U21, and losing 1-4 at home to Mansfield Town last time out.
Blackpool odds a bit short
The Seasiders are the stronger team on paper, but Blackpool have lost 1 of their last 3 on the way, whilst Hornchurch have only lost 1 of their last 2 at their own ground. The market is understandably sided with the visitors, but it feels like this game is closer than the odds suggest.
We're going with Hornchurch on the double chance, and whilst we don't see the hosts taking the win outright, we do feel they can get the better of Blackpool and make a very close game. The price of 29/10 on the draw is also very enticing and is easily covered within the double chance price.
