- Crewe are unbeaten in their last 5 games (W3, D2).
- Wimbledon have lost 4 of their last 5 (L4, D1).
- Crewe have failed to win any of their last 3 home games against Wimbledon.
A tight and tense cup tie awaits at Mornflake Stadium
Crewe Alexandra have been a really solid outfit in the last five matches, bouncing back from their 5-1 thrashing at Chesterfield by grinding out a 1-1 draw with Barnet on Tuesday. They've taken two wins and a draw from that period and they look primed to make a game of this one at 71/50, although Wimbledon are a tempting 179/100 to take something on Saturday.
The visitors have been abysmal in recent weeks, coming into this game in poor nick after a run of four defeats, one draw and no wins in their last five. Their all-competitions return over the last ten is a paltry W1, D3, L6, a run which speaks for itself.
Head-to-head has been tight in this fixture in recent years, but The Dons have edged it slightly with four draws and one win in the last five. Crewe have been unable to win any of the previous three meetings in Crewe, which leads us nicely into our selection.
A classic control vs counter affair
Crewe boss Lee Bell sets his team up to play a patient and possession-based game where they will keep the ball well and try and control the territory. They will sit in a mid-block, which isn't really designed to blitz teams, but to control the game by keeping possession.
Johnnie Jackson has Wimbledon set up in a much higher-tempo 3-4-2-1, where they employ wing-backs that are really up for it. The visitors like to play on the front foot and hurt teams in transition, which should test Crewe's ability to keep the ball in possession.
Jordan Gibson has been the spark that is igniting Crewe's recent upturn in form, the former Chesterfield star has scored three of their five goals in his last 5 appearances and he has a lot of confidence and pace on the break right now. Wimbledon can hurt the Railwaymen on the counter, as they proved in a 3-0 win in League Two 2024/2025, but they will need to do it here with just 0.75 goals scored per-match on the road recently (D1, L3).
Under 2.5 goals looks likely
This looks to be a Crewe edge on the odds, but the form and the head-to-head tells us that this should be a cagey clash, not a shootout.
As such, we're going with Under 2.5 goals at 3/4 and Both Teams to Score: No at 19/20, hoping to capitalise on the fact that this should be a cup tie of few clear-cut chances.
