- Cruz Azul are the 39/100 favourites to progress past Atlas at home
- Atlas are 597/100 long shots to come back and beat their 3-2 aggregate deficit
- Cruz Azul are undefeated in their last five matches in all competitions (W2, D3)
An entertaining and eventful Liguilla last eight clash awaits
Cruz Azul will be pleased to take their 3-2 aggregate advantage into Sunday’s Liguilla quarter-final second leg at home to CF Atlas Guadalajara. Although the visitors will be desperate to win by two goals to stay in the competition, the hosts are rightful favourites to finish the job.
The odds tell us all we need to know about this clash, with Cruz Azul 39/100 favourites to make it through at Atlas’s expense. While the visitors have been given little chance at 597/100, the 15/4 quote on a draw seems a bit too low given what we saw in last weekend’s first leg.
A draw would not be enough for Atlas to progress, but Cruz Azul are a very good side who have made the right tactical changes under interim boss Joel Huiqui. He has injected a new urgency into his team’s play with a more proactive pressing strategy that has brought the best out of the talented squad he inherited.
Atlas will absorb and attack against Cruz Azul
Atlas boss Diego Cocca tends to set up his teams in a more measured manner, with his players forming a compact, defensive block and making the transition forward in numbers when possession is won in central areas. The result is a game of cat and mouse with Atlas absorbing pressure and trying to pounce on the advanced fullbacks that Huiqui often employs.
Cruz Azul will be without the injured Jesús Orozco and Nicolás Ibáñez, which limits depth in their squad, while Atlas will take a nearly full-strength squad to Puebla. The weather forecast for Sunday’s game is for cool temperatures and mostly clear skies with a slight chance of a pre-kickoff shower that is unlikely to disrupt play.
La Maquina can keep their momentum going
The over 2.5 goals market at 51/100 has been bet into the ground by those that saw Cruz Azul’s recent games, but it’s a reasonable bet in the context of this clash. Atlas have to go for it at some stage and La Maquina’s recent attacking flair suggests they can make the most of that.
Cruz Azul are unbeaten in their last five in all competitions, but have only won two of those games, the other three finishing as draws. They have not lost to Atlas in 2026, winning both of their Liga MX and Liguilla encounters this year.
Goals and drama look likely
Cruz Azul finished third in the Clausura 2026 regular season with 33 points, while Atlas took sixth with 26 points, which means the tie-breaker in the event of an aggregate draw goes to La Maquina. That could be crucial because there will be late drama in this one as Atlas tries to claw their way back into the tie.
Christian Eberé is in fine form for Cruz Azul after his first-leg brace in Guadalajara made him the first African player to score a Liguilla double for the club. The veteran Cameroon international will be well marked by Atlas on Sunday.
Carlos Rodolfo Rotondi has been La Maquina’s creative force all season and scored in the first leg, while midfielder José Paradela, who assisted in the first leg, and Argentine international Agustín Palavecino are crucial to their set-piece threat and midfield control.
Atlas have to have a go at some point
Aldo Rocha was Atlas’ penalty-taker in the first leg and the captain scored the goal to give his team hope of progressing. He anchors the midfield and is a combative leader, although he will need a big performance from the veteran keeper Camilo Vargas on Sunday, who kept Atlas in the game with several key saves despite also conceding three goals.
Alfonso González has been Atlas’ impact man off the bench this season, scoring in the first leg. He will be ready if Atlas have to push for a goal in the closing stages of the match.
The two clubs have played out low-scoring matches recently with Atlas winning two and drawing two of their last five Liga MX games 1-0 or 0-0. However, they faltered late against Cruz Azul in the first leg and their defensive discipline will be severely tested again on Sunday.
Cruz Azul have become a much more goal-happy team under Huiqui’s pragmatic influence and look more likely to win this match-up, but Atlas are a gritty side and won’t give in easily, so it could be a nervy evening for the home fans.
