- Derry City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games across all competitions.
- Dundalk FC have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Derry have won 7, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their 16 home matches in the Premier Division 2026, conceding just 19 goals (1.19 per game).
Candlestickes look the value to edge a classic derby
Derry City are the favourite in the odds for their match against Dundalk FC on Friday but the Lilywhites are a big price for a team that are in poor form, so we'll take the hosts to edge a lively local battle. Ciaran Kilduff's side have been going badly and may have to be better than they have been to avoid defeat to the Candystripes.
Derry are 5th in the Premier Division 2026 with 41 points from 33 games, level with 7th-placed Dundalk in points but holding onto the slightly better position of the two. Mark Connolly's side have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, with the most recent results being a 1-0 home victory over Galway United in the Premier Division 2026, a 2-0 away win at the same club in the FAI Cup 2026 and a 2-0 away defeat to Drogheda United in the Premier Division 2026.
Dundalk have won none of their last 5, with a 1-1 draw sandwiched between three successive home defeats - a 4-0 loss to St Patrick's Athletic, a 3-2 defeat to Shelbourne FC and a 2-1 loss to Bohemian FC Dublin in the Premier Division 2026.
Derry will get the ball more and that suits them
The form and the odds point us to Derry winning this game but they need to be a little patient and that may not be easy at their home ground on Friday night with their fierce rivals coming to town. Connolly has quickly established a style of play that suits his players and the club, although it may take some time to fully take effect.
He prefers to dominate the ball and pin the opposition back, slowly turning up the pressure. Kilduff favors a quicker, transition-heavy 4-2-3-1 system that has a bit more bite and sharpness to it. The Lilywhites look to make things happen in the transition and when they do push on they are just as likely to be caught at the other end.
Derry's home record and their form against Dundalk also makes us lean towards the 73/100 on the home side, as the Candystripes have won 7, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their 16 games at the Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, conceding just 19 times at an average of 1.19 per 90 minutes. Dundalk have won four, drawn eight and lost four of their 16 on the road, scoring 1.50 goals and shipping 1.75 per away game.
Connolly’s Candlestickes have the edge
Taking Derry to win and both teams not to score also suits the shape of this game, given Dundalk have been leaking goals lately. A goal would be a bonus for the visitors, who are likely to have fewer chances than Derry. But the best way to get on the scoresheet for the host is usually through Michael Duffy, who has scored 11 goals in 25 Premier Division 2026 games and 4 of their 6 goals in their last 5. Daryl Horgan remains Dundalk's leading scorer with 10 in 31 games in the top flight in 2026 but the visitors aren't looking as likely to score as their opponents here.
