- Dundalk have won two of their last two home games, beating Derry City 2-1 last time out.
- Waterford are winless in their last two away games.
Dundalk to dominate from wide areas
Ciaran Kilduff has done a brilliant job since taking over Dundalk in November 2024, taking his side to third in the Premier Division 2026 after 21 games (35 points from 21 matches). The Lilywhites are very consistent and can count on a solid home record (W6, D2, L2) to get them over the line on Friday.
Waterford currently sit 10th in the table after taking just 14 points from their 21 Premier Division 2026 games. Graham Coughlan took over as manager in May 2026 and appears to have taken the approach of ensuring the Blues are tough to beat first and foremost, before attempting to start a survival push.
Coughlan's tactics have certainly seen Waterford tighten up at the back, but their failure to win any of their 10 away trips (D2, L8) this season is a major factor in their struggles, and this is one of those games that Dundalk should be dominating if things go to plan.
The last H2H ended in a 3-3 thriller at the Regional Sports Centre six weeks ago in the Premier Division 2026. However, Dundalk are on a five-game unbeaten run (W4, D1) and have won their last two on the spin, including consecutive away victories and last time out a 2-1 win at home to Derry City.
Going for goals with the hosts
Dundalk's home record in the top flight is solid, but they're averaging 1.80 goals per-game scored and only 1.00 per-game conceded here in the Premier Division 2026. Waterford have conceded 28 goals away from home, an average of 2.80 per-game!
That's why the Over 2.5 goals market at 11/25 appeals here, especially considering Waterford have been more defensive in their recent games. The Blues did well to beat Sligo Rovers 4-0 last weekend, but they were then hammered 2-0 at Shamrock Rovers seven days later.
Tom Lonergan leads the Waterford scoring charts with eight Premier Division 2026 goals in 19 appearances and has netted three in his last five. But Dundalk are the clear danger men, Daryl Horgan has six goals in 20 league games and the hosts should win this one at 49/100.
Waterford are long shots at 23/5, but their recent record suggests Dundalk will win with some confidence. Dundalk play a 4-2-3-1 system with width and pace in transition from a compact, pragmatic base, which should play perfectly into their hands against a compact, risk-averse Waterford side.
