- Hamburger SV have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five in all competitions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won three and drawn two of their last five in all competitions.
- Head-to-head, Hamburger SV have won one of the last two meetings, 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won none, and drawn one, with the last fixture ending 1-1 in the Bundesliga 2025/2026.
Polzin vs Fischer - two different styles
Hamburger SV and 1. FSV Mainz 05 have made contrasting starts to the 2026-2027 season, with the Red Shorts sitting 14th in the Bundesliga 2026/2027 with 0 points after one match, while the 05ers are 10th with one point.
Merlin Polzin has been in charge of Hamburger SV since 25 November 2024 and has built a high-tempo, aggressive pressing side that will run at their opponents, turn the ball over and transition quickly. Polzin's flexible system, which alternates between a 3-4-3 and a 4-2-3-1, aims to get players in behind, making the most of the ball when they have it, but there is a balance to be found with this approach.
1. FSV Mainz 05 are more steady and more deliberate in their approach, Urs Fischer taking over as manager on 7 December 2025. Fischer's men have a back three, and wing backs, and will keep the game structured by compacting and counter-pressing in numbers. This is a clash of two very different styles - Hamburg will want the game open, fast and frantic, while Mainz will want it structured, with wing backs bombing forward and overloads against the lines.
Fischer can edge it
Hamburger SV come into this game off the back of a 0-3 win away at SC Verl in the DFB Pokal 2026/2027, but that was followed by a 0-2 defeat away at Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga 2026/2027, so it's hard to say which Hamburger SV turn up on Sunday.
Mainz meanwhile, recorded a 0-9 win against VfB 1921 Krieschow in the DFB Pokal 2026/2027, before a 0-0 draw at home to SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga 2026/2027.
Hamburger SV have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last two at home, while Mainz have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 1 away, so Mainz have shown that they can travel.
The draw is priced at 51/20, Hamburger SV are 42/25 and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 7/5, so the value in this game looks to be with the visitors.
Mainz have the better form and the steadier approach, while the clash of styles could lead to an intriguing, albeit close, contest, so the draw could be a good play, but it's 7/5 on Mainz.
Both teams to score is available at 53/100, but over 2.5 goals looks just as likely at 13/20, so both markets are expected to land on Sunday.
Sheraldo Becker has three goals in Mainz's last five and has the end product of a dangerous player.
