- Norway have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 fixtures, defeating Sweden 3-1 and holding Morocco to a 1-1 away draw in that sequence.
- Iraq have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, battling to a 1-1 draw away to Spain and beating Andorra 0-1 in recent friendlies.
- Iraq have scored 7 goals in their last 5 home matches, but lost their previous fixture at home to Venezuela 0-2.
Group I heavyweight clash should go to the more positive team
Two of the three favourites to qualify from Group I of the FIFA World Cup 2026 will meet on Tuesday in a clash that could have huge ramifications for the remainder of the group.
Both Iraq and Norway are in solid form, so it should be a close game with each team looking to take advantage of the other's potential missteps in a game of chess between two very different tactical systems.
Iraq are more of a compact, risk-averse side with a solid defensive structure and players who can run into the gaps when the opportunity arises. Graham Arnold has instilled some of his previous club's compactness and discipline on the team since he took over as head coach in May 2025.
The team's front line is led by a physical Aymen Hussein, who is the target man in this system and the key to most of the set pieces and counter-attacking options under Arnold's system. Ali Adnan provides attacking width and is their main set piece delivery man, but they can have a go on the counter when the chance arises.
Norway play a very different style of football under head coach Philippe Clement, who has introduced a more dynamic, vertical, risk-taking approach since November 2025. Norway are a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 team that plays high up the field, pressing hard and trying to overload the channels with wide overloading and progressive pass play.
Erling Haaland will inevitably be the focal point of their attack, providing an explosive finishing option and a physical threat to any opposition rearguard. Joergen Strand Larsen has added to their attacking depth by getting three goals in the last five and has provided an additional dimension to the frontline.
Back the over due to Norway's away goals record
Norway come into the game with 23/100 favourites to take the game despite the fact that Iraq are a good team and have had some impressive results in high-profile friendlies against strong opposition.
Given the difference in odds, the only bet that stands out in this game is to back the over 2.5 goals market, which is available at a short 59/100. There will be a contrast between Norway's vertical aggression and Iraq's deep defensive block, but we believe the possession will be in the hands of the Europeans for most of the match and Iraq will seek to exploit their rare opportunities.
The quality of Norway's front three and their record of averaging 2.00 goals per away game in all competitions suggests that they will unlock the Iraq system on Tuesday.
