- Leeds United are unbeaten in their last two home games (Won 1, drawn 1).
- Burnley have not won in their last five league games (drawn 1, lost 4).
- Burnley have won two of the three meetings in the Premier League 2025-2026 (drawn 1).
Farke’s free-flowing Leeds can outgun the Clarets
Scott Parker has not been able to halt Burnley’s slide, although the Clarets are more organised, compact and pragmatic under his stewardship. Parker’s men beat Leeds 2-0 at Turf Moor when the clubs last met six months ago, but the reverse fixture this Friday will probably be a very different affair.
Leeds are currently 15th in the table on 40 points from 34 games, while Burnley are relegated with only 20 points from as many games. Daniel Farke’s side have been in mixed form lately, winning two, drawing two and losing one of their last five in all competitions.
However, they have been far better at Elland Road, where they have won seven, drawn five and lost five in the Premier League 2025-2026. United are a possession-based team that plays a high-tempo game, making the ball travel quickly in vertical transitions and by overloading the wide areas. Farke’s tactical flexibility has allowed them to remain a high-pressing, high-energy team while also being able to switch shape to be compact and solid when they need to be.
Burnley’s lack of pace could be exploited
The Whites will dominate possession against a Burnley side that Parker wants to set up as a compact unit and press only when the conditions are right. Parker isn’t a big fan of choking the opposition’s central areas with men, preferring to keep his defence intact and then pounce on the counter-attack.
That could be a problem for the visitors against a mobile and dangerous Leeds attack led by 11-goal top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Noah Okafor has been the star performer of late, however, scoring three of the Whites’ last six in their past five games. Zian Flemming is Burnley’s most reliable finisher with nine Premier League goals in 25 appearances this term and he has scored both of his side’s last two.
Whites can win a goal-fest
Burnley have only won two of their 17 away league games this season, drawing three and losing a dozen. Their defence has been too porous away from home, conceding an average of 2.47 goals per game and 42 overall this term. Leeds’ home goals average is 1.47 and they have scored 25 at Elland Road this league campaign.
Odds of 47/100 for Leeds to win are too short for a side that has not been winning many games of late, but there’s plenty of value in the Over 2.5 goals price of 3/4 and Both Teams to Score - Yes at 17/20. The hosts are likely to control the game, create more chances and eventually win in a game featuring at least three goals with both clubs on the scoresheet.
