- Leeds have won 4 of their last 5 matches and have played better football than Forest recently.
- However, Forest have won two of their last three home H2Hs against Leeds.
- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in five home games across all competitions (W2, D3, L0) conceding four goals.
A tight-looking clash at City Ground
It is very difficult to have much confidence in Nottingham Forest or Leeds United for this Saturday's Premier League 2026-2027 clash at the City Ground, where the hosts are currently priced at 61/50 and the visitors at 21/10. That makes the hosts the slight favourites and it's understandable, but there is enough evidence to suggest this could be a close encounter with the draw or a home win by a one-goal margin looking the most likely.
Forest are the more unpredictable side and they have had a mixed run of results across their last 10 in all competitions (W3, D3, L4), which is not a catastrophic sequence, but indicates that the team are still searching for consistency.
However, their two most recent performances - losing 1-0 away to Udinese Calcio and then beating Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 at home - suggest they will respond to their most recent defeat and that Igor Jesus can still be their spark as the Brazilian has two of Forest's six goals across the last five matches.
Forest have the tools to keep Leeds at bay
Leeds come into this encounter in better form than Forest, backing up their 4-0 home win over FC Augsburg with a penalty shootout defeat after a 1-1 draw away to Manchester United. Daniel Farke has clearly brought more tactical flexibility to the club, while keeping Leeds on the front foot with controlled build-up, good width from their wing-backs and quicker vertical transitions. By contrast, Oliver Glasner appears to have Forest set up to keep it tight and take their chances on the break, so it should be a proper chess match on Saturday with Leeds hunting territory and Forest looking to punish them on the counterattack.
Whites can score and concede
Leeds' away record in all competitions in 2026-27 stands at W1, D1, L2 from four games with 2.50 goals scored and 3.00 goals conceded on average, so both teams to score - Yes at 7/10 looks a live angle, particularly if Leeds continue to play with their current level of openness away.
But if Forest can keep this fairly cagey, then under 2.5 goals at 17/20 has to have some appeal and the draw at 47/20 is also of interest in a match where Leeds will certainly provide the greater threat. Forest have won two of their last three at home to Leeds and may just edge it in this fixture again given the home advantage, but we'll take the points and go for the tie.
