- SC Freiburg have won three of their last five games, including their last two in all competitions.
- Lille have lost their last three home games.
Free-scoring affair expected between two out-of-shape teams
Lille are not a team in form, having lost their last five matches in all competitions, including a 1-4 home defeat to Strasbourg just 2 days ago.
Bruno Genesio, who has been in charge since June 2024, has instilled a possession-based, shape-shifting playing style that is not always easy on the eye, but is under pressure after a run of poor results.
Lille’s main threat is Hamza Igamane, who has four goals in five Europa League appearances for Les Dogues this season, but the hosts could not look more unconvincing at the moment and will be extremely nervous for this critical final group-stage encounter.
Freiburg’s form is far superior to Lille’s, with Julian Schuster’s men having won three of their last five and ridden a two-game winning streak into this contest.
Schuster has been in charge of the Breisgau Brazilians since July 2024 and has fostered a free-flowing system based on wide overloads, structured and disciplined link-up play, and pressing in situational areas.
Freiburg’s hottest player in the Europa League is Igor Matanovic, who has scored four times in his last five appearances for the club, while fellow midfielder Vincenzo Grifo is the top scorer in the tournament for Freiburg with two in seven appearances.
Draw takes Freiburg through, Lille must win
Freiburg’s odds of 29/10 for the game seem very generous when compared to Lille’s 9/10 and the draw at 49/20, suggesting that this will be a tight encounter.
This is certainly not an easy fixture to call, but Lille’s form suggests that Freiburg will be able to do enough to get at least a draw from the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
A draw would see the Bundesliga side through to the knockout stages of the Europa League 2025/2026, while Lille will be out of the competition if they fail to claim all three points in this match.
The visitors have failed to win either of their last two away games, but this is still a side riding a wave of positive momentum and with more points (17 from 7) and a better group position (3rd) than Lille (21st with 9 points from 7 games) in the Europa League 2025/2026.
Open contest expected
Lille’s central probing and high defensive line will meet Freiburg’s wide-based attacking style in what could be a very open contest on Thursday, with the visitors’ structure and ability to attack quickly from the flanks likely to cause the hosts the most problems.
Both Teams To Score looks overpriced at 73/100 in this one, considering the attacking quality and needs of both sides, as well as Lille’s recent defensive vulnerabilities and Freiburg’s attacking form.
