- Paksi FC have only conceded 4 goals in 4 home games across all competitions this season (3 wins, 1 draw).
- Panathinaikos have won 2 of their last 5 games, but drew 1 and lost 2 (3-0 H win over Grasshopper Club Zurich, 4-1 A defeat to SK Rapid Wien).
- Panathinaikos have conceded 9 goals in their last 6 competitive away games (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats).
Panathinaikos are not as clear as the bookies think
Panathinaikos are the clear favourites with the bookies for Thursday's UEFA Conference League qualification 2026 clash against Paksi FC, but we feel the Greeks are shorter than they should be here at 3/5. The Hungarians are a very liveable 9/2 and there's enough value in that market to take the hosts on in the double chance market.
Paksi are a very good side who can match the visitors in terms of quality on Thursday, but it's Panathinaikos who have the real cutting edge and that's why we think the Greeks will eventually come through as winners. However, Paksi's ability to stay compact and make life difficult for their opponents, combined with their own transition threat, suggests that this match won't be as easy for the visitors as the market suggests.
György Bognár's men have won three of their four home games in all competitions this term (1 draw), conceding just four goals in total. They have also won three and lost two of their last five matches, beating Diosgyor VTK 1-3 in NB I, but suffering a 2-1 friendly defeat to Dundee FC.
Paksi FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last 10 matches in all competitions, so they are in decent form, but they are not so explosive that they will overwhelm Panathinaikos here.
Jacob Neestrup's side are a higher-quality outfit, but their form has been mixed. The Grecian team have won only three of their last ten games, drawing three and losing four, which is a bit of a worry. In their last five, they have won two, drawn one and lost two, so there's a lot of room for improvement.
Grecian team have the quality to edge this
Vicente Taborda has been a real spark for Panathinaikos of late, scoring three of their nine goals in the last five fixtures, and they have the overall quality to force the pace in this game and should win it.
But with Paksi sitting deep and making them work for every chance, it's unlikely to be a walk in the park and an away win with under 3.5 goals is the best way to go on this occasion. The draw sits at 57/20 and while the market still expects a Greek win, the draw is less likely as this should be a tight match in patches with the hosts likely to have the most joy on the counter.
